{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f61823b-9310-41bc-b6cc-b6b2188cedd1", "symbol": "PNBK", "name": "Patriot National Bancorp Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.989, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.079, "architecture_energy": 9.211, "architecture_maturity": 19.09, "architecture_confidence": 73.817, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.4, "rotation_up": 22.9, "upward_expansion": 19.96, "deceleration": 47.04, "rotation_down": 27.54, "downward_expansion": 50.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.152, 1.14576, 1.137756, 1.174625 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.16, "trend_reference": 1.244973, "distance_from_trend": -0.068253, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.545726, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.544334, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.510163, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.226667, "excess_performance": -0.41412, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068253, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093246, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.544334, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104897, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.245102, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179731, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.226667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.924991, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1315887, "relative_activity": 0.621307, "balance": 0.924991, "dry_up": 0.569474, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154224, "annualized_volatility": 0.676791, "from_high_reference": -0.418546, "from_low_reference": 0.344928 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.244973, "fair_value_reference": 2.545726, "structural_low": 0.8625, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.092308, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": -0.085896, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.116402, "worst_return": -0.280753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.297468, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.289773, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.065737, "worst_return": -0.37037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.132911, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.178026, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.857143, "worst_return": -0.483726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.343915, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.516764, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.272534, "worst_return": -0.614555, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.210084, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.106707, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.706019, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.356436, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027211, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.215278, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050633, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101695, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.188312, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024194, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007692, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.033898, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.45, "volume": 13793, "typical_volume": 19647.35, "trend": 9.064523, "fair_value": 10.705215, "relative_strength": -27.124331, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.19, "volume": 1588060, "typical_volume": 2360018.5, "trend": 1.300973, "fair_value": 2.702521, "relative_strength": -21.981827, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.997796, "energy": 18.299246, "activity_lines": [ 1.18056, 1.128625, 1.150602, 1.201846 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.12, "volume": 934146, "typical_volume": 2356116.4, "trend": 1.279307, "fair_value": 2.652585, "relative_strength": -24.72936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.345596, "energy": 20.858139, "activity_lines": [ 1.170613, 1.131731, 1.143796, 1.19017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.14, "volume": 986343, "typical_volume": 2325013.75, "trend": 1.26164, "fair_value": 2.598226, "relative_strength": -23.044823, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.611, "energy": 13.546357, "activity_lines": [ 1.164, 1.137564, 1.139467, 1.181183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.16, "volume": 1315887, "typical_volume": 2117934.9, "trend": 1.244973, "fair_value": 2.545726, "relative_strength": -24.510163, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.079002, "energy": 9.211469, "activity_lines": [ 1.152, 1.14576, 1.137756, 1.174625 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }