{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f64c63b-a9ef-40cb-879a-8e12c0a91df9", "symbol": "IBTP", "name": "ISHARES IBONDS DEC 2034 TERM TREASURY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 58.94, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.542, "architecture_energy": 60.488, "architecture_maturity": 24.86, "architecture_confidence": 87.243, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.56, "rotation_up": 12.59, "upward_expansion": 13.1, "deceleration": 38.49, "rotation_down": 67.2, "downward_expansion": 88.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.982149, 25.064747, 25.133704, 25.210728 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.035, "trend_reference": 25.307019, "distance_from_trend": -0.010749, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.655599, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.015388, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.685767, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.01599, "excess_performance": -0.203443, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.010749, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004016, "read": "Falling" 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24.811419, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.001344, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01532, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.007498, "worst_return": -0.004809, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.908456, "volume": 369539, "typical_volume": 245961.95, "trend": 25.336783, "fair_value": 24.650144, "relative_strength": -10.006886, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.088299, "energy": 55.587133, "activity_lines": [ 25.06703, 25.130526, 25.184172, 25.258483 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.881748, "volume": 275823, "typical_volume": 246251.5, "trend": 25.320167, "fair_value": 24.652212, "relative_strength": -10.216442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.908771, "energy": 66.665043, "activity_lines": [ 24.981138, 25.082159, 25.150358, 25.229126 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.035, "volume": 290769, "typical_volume": 255460.2, "trend": 25.307019, "fair_value": 24.655599, "relative_strength": -13.685767, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.542344, "energy": 60.487572, "activity_lines": [ 24.982149, 25.064747, 25.133704, 25.210728 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }