{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f68ace4-3c07-4089-9413-b3fd86354099", "symbol": "XDWS", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Consumer Staples UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 80.41, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.43, "architecture_energy": 33.273, "architecture_maturity": 19.893, "architecture_confidence": 53.937, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.36, "rotation_up": 49.63, "upward_expansion": 74.19, "deceleration": 65.14, "rotation_down": 18.64, "downward_expansion": 3.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.438001, 48.32091, 47.802215, 47.599011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 48.330002, "trend_reference": 47.359167, "distance_from_trend": 0.020499, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.325737, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.090337, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.826045, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.001033, "excess_performance": -0.171925, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020499, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029152, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.090337, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09826, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007009, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001033, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.106975, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29663, "relative_activity": 0.762977, "balance": 1.106975, "dry_up": 0.91966, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029708, "annualized_volatility": 0.143249, "from_high_reference": -0.044862, "from_low_reference": 0.130262 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.359167, "fair_value_reference": 44.325737, "structural_low": 45.174999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.000849, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.000486, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.094344, "worst_return": -0.07025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.025521, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.020099, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.059025, "worst_return": -0.037552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.045507, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.064437, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.115148, "worst_return": -0.086063, "sufficient": true }, { 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48.503333, 48.010091, 47.480048, 47.353204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.145, "volume": 28161, "typical_volume": 38261.75, "trend": 47.0655, "fair_value": 44.235096, "relative_strength": -7.460096, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.851479, "energy": 51.388932, "activity_lines": [ 48.463667, 48.090727, 47.570691, 47.432634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.540001, "volume": 50668, "typical_volume": 39564.2, "trend": 47.225667, "fair_value": 44.281378, "relative_strength": -7.064325, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.789161, "energy": 36.007224, "activity_lines": [ 48.481667, 48.233637, 47.697334, 47.527764 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.330002, "volume": 29663, "typical_volume": 38877.95, "trend": 47.359167, "fair_value": 44.325737, "relative_strength": -9.826045, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.429614, "energy": 33.2729, "activity_lines": [ 48.438001, 48.32091, 47.802215, 47.599011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }