{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f750353-5dbc-4b44-bbf4-98f9338d26f1", "symbol": "3372", "name": "Taiwan IC Packaging Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.871, "architecture_energy": 77.538, "architecture_maturity": 25.041, "architecture_confidence": 84.03, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.24, "rotation_up": 8.84, "upward_expansion": 17.87, "deceleration": 37.11, "rotation_down": 80.1, "downward_expansion": 95.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.73, 16.991193, 18.293576, 18.985669 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 15.7, "trend_reference": 19.949618, "distance_from_trend": -0.213017, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.037505, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.078504, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.56606, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.245192, "excess_performance": -0.686564, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.213017, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026215, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.078504, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.260105, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.405661, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173639, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.245192, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.542378, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2395850, "relative_activity": 0.443712, "balance": 0.542378, "dry_up": 0.552507, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138389, "annualized_volatility": 0.567495, "from_high_reference": -0.400763, "from_low_reference": 0.22179 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.949618, "fair_value_reference": 17.037505, "structural_low": 14.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.044118, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.018039, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.192171, "worst_return": -0.177994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.101307, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.059808, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.248092, "worst_return": -0.207407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.066621, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.106793, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.189091, "worst_return": -0.330864, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061644, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023891, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036697, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": 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"close": 15.1, "volume": 3983672, "typical_volume": 5851011.5, "trend": 20.394618, "fair_value": 17.012936, "relative_strength": -40.070028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.681555, "energy": 78.112299, "activity_lines": [ 16.803333, 18.142594, 18.991562, 19.584545 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.6, "volume": 2330043, "typical_volume": 5511232.7, "trend": 20.187951, "fair_value": 17.023507, "relative_strength": -39.234454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.552907, "energy": 79.262135, "activity_lines": [ 16.086667, 17.501893, 18.619474, 19.275215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 15.7, "volume": 2395850, "typical_volume": 5399555.2, "trend": 19.949618, "fair_value": 17.037505, "relative_strength": -40.56606, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.870845, "energy": 77.53809, "activity_lines": [ 15.73, 16.991193, 18.293576, 18.985669 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }