{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f7d0eb2-5516-4719-85a4-c70b7e4ad6e3", "symbol": "SJT", "name": "San Juan Basin Royalty Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.386, "architecture_energy": 77.681, "architecture_maturity": 70.83, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 22.78, "upward_expansion": 16.49, "deceleration": 42.38, "rotation_down": 69.34, "downward_expansion": 94.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.558, 2.733818, 3.212524, 3.653591 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 2.53, "trend_reference": 4.274667, "distance_from_trend": -0.408141, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.036288, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.497646, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -54.66899, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.550622, "excess_performance": -0.676247, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.408141, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182195, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.497646, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.266515, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.54669, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193077, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.550622, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.320718, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 928721, "relative_activity": 0.973983, "balance": 0.320718, "dry_up": 1.061864, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134387, "annualized_volatility": 0.35536, "from_high_reference": -0.617247, "from_low_reference": 0.067511 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.274667, "fair_value_reference": 5.036288, "structural_low": 2.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.044335, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.031909, "regime_survival": 0.913043, "best_return": 0.226093, "worst_return": -0.23057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.056033, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.142822, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.248521, "worst_return": -0.274567, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.09919, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.177525, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.052369, "worst_return": -0.272956, "sufficient": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 938187.35, "trend": 4.677333, "fair_value": 5.154563, "relative_strength": -53.048151, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.62882, "energy": 91.342109, "activity_lines": [ 2.966, 3.262182, 3.749714, 4.162237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.7, "volume": 820905, "typical_volume": 921768.0, "trend": 4.586667, "fair_value": 5.12831, "relative_strength": -51.941389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.616491, "energy": 83.571957, "activity_lines": [ 2.850667, 3.112182, 3.610762, 4.034667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.52, "volume": 1671464, "typical_volume": 960562.05, "trend": 4.494, "fair_value": 5.096491, "relative_strength": -54.228061, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.702212, "energy": 82.005829, "activity_lines": [ 2.716667, 2.955636, 3.466476, 3.901333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.51, "volume": 628981, "typical_volume": 943873.15, "trend": 4.386, "fair_value": 5.066448, "relative_strength": -54.178194, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.654573, "energy": 78.343282, "activity_lines": [ 2.618667, 2.828545, 3.332857, 3.773333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.53, "volume": 928721, "typical_volume": 953528.7, "trend": 4.274667, "fair_value": 5.036288, "relative_strength": -54.66899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.385681, "energy": 77.681305, "activity_lines": [ 2.558, 2.733818, 3.212524, 3.653591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }