{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f7e3648-9f9d-4858-a610-7f5e40ab1605", "symbol": "COPP", "name": "Global X Copper Producers Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.58, "architecture_energy": 8.135, "architecture_maturity": 21.916, "architecture_confidence": 66.068, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 71.62, "rotation_up": 30.52, "upward_expansion": 19.45, "deceleration": 62.81, "rotation_down": 35.16, "downward_expansion": 33.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.998, 57.62, 58.166238, 57.881161 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 63.07, "trend_reference": 58.048, "distance_from_trend": 0.086515, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.410601, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.641995, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.924018, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.045244, "excess_performance": -0.075178, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086515, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053711, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.641995, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009362, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.07924, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077984, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045244, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.601227, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67600, "relative_activity": 0.798582, "balance": 0.601227, "dry_up": 0.742174, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076399, "annualized_volatility": 0.521917, "from_high_reference": -0.105897, "from_low_reference": 0.85824 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.048, "fair_value_reference": 38.410601, "structural_low": 46.400002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.124042, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.093568, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.199252, "worst_return": -0.066616, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.157289, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.066004, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.538318, "worst_return": -0.073207, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.255327, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.170691, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.524297, "worst_return": -0.140833, "sufficient": false }, { 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55.089118, "fair_value": 36.52276, "relative_strength": 20.019991, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.440827, "energy": 45.579612, "activity_lines": [ 60.204667, 59.022, 57.840191, 57.151477 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 58.529999, "volume": 53400, "typical_volume": 174485.0, "trend": 55.555378, "fair_value": 36.729008, "relative_strength": 10.301793, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.766971, "energy": 38.584587, "activity_lines": [ 60.053333, 59.169272, 57.883619, 57.373469 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 62.509998, "volume": 97200, "typical_volume": 166930.0, "trend": 56.150312, "fair_value": 36.947705, "relative_strength": 15.238152, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.300587, "energy": 49.995757, "activity_lines": [ 60.961999, 59.886545, 58.305857, 57.822155 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 61.720001, "volume": 18000, "typical_volume": 141535.0, "trend": 56.772818, "fair_value": 37.169645, "relative_strength": 12.947789, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.563788, "energy": 53.445766, "activity_lines": [ 61.387333, 60.312363, 58.646714, 58.181489 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 55.580002, "volume": 15500, "typical_volume": 129665.0, "trend": 57.038923, "fair_value": 37.349626, "relative_strength": 1.344131, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.945341, "energy": 13.50923, "activity_lines": [ 59.558, 59.572364, 58.394952, 58.104533 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 57.369999, "volume": 8100, "typical_volume": 120835.0, "trend": 57.317443, "fair_value": 37.540194, "relative_strength": 3.435172, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.777477, "energy": 11.921278, "activity_lines": [ 58.525333, 59.263636, 58.336333, 58.125893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 56.110001, "volume": 70400, "typical_volume": 118115.0, "trend": 57.552633, "fair_value": 37.712601, "relative_strength": 0.647283, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.046805, "energy": 10.623218, "activity_lines": [ 57.514667, 58.726727, 58.179143, 58.047994 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.77, "volume": 48400, "typical_volume": 111010.0, "trend": 57.612601, "fair_value": 37.864739, "relative_strength": -5.500427, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.254532, "energy": 30.977592, "activity_lines": [ 55.552, 57.553818, 57.731095, 57.739437 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.23, "volume": 80900, "typical_volume": 101765.0, "trend": 57.731667, "fair_value": 38.027515, "relative_strength": -0.001418, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.69168, "energy": 38.090301, "activity_lines": [ 55.392, 57.127091, 57.673381, 57.650237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.07, "volume": 54400, "typical_volume": 93675.0, "trend": 57.829, "fair_value": 38.193578, "relative_strength": -0.342735, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.711318, "energy": 37.310077, "activity_lines": [ 55.544667, 56.714364, 57.594286, 57.543032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.07, "volume": 67600, "typical_volume": 84650.0, "trend": 58.048, "fair_value": 38.410601, "relative_strength": 7.924018, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.580133, "energy": 8.13462, "activity_lines": [ 57.998, 57.62, 58.166238, 57.881161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }