{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f7e8b6e-11a2-4510-9281-18e164d50b3b", "symbol": "601999", "name": "Northern United Publishing & Media (Group) Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.407, "architecture_energy": 39.294, "architecture_maturity": 72.96, "architecture_confidence": 87.499, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.4, "rotation_up": 27.3, "upward_expansion": 18.61, "deceleration": 46.04, "rotation_down": 34.18, "downward_expansion": 63.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.865333, 5.815818, 6.11519, 6.455978 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.94, "trend_reference": 6.834, "distance_from_trend": -0.130817, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.53491, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.091036, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.220532, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.213245, "excess_performance": -0.170041, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130817, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064946, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.091036, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189318, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.142205, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071613, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.213245, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.312611, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23110299, "relative_activity": 0.536049, "balance": 0.312611, "dry_up": 0.543504, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07252, "annualized_volatility": 0.424181, "from_high_reference": -0.321143, "from_low_reference": 0.093923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.834, "fair_value_reference": 6.53491, "structural_low": 5.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.005639, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.001648, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.171334, "worst_return": -0.089947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.122008, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.101247, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.262991, "worst_return": -0.145937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.065157, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.037083, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.132107, "worst_return": 0.00624, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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81.360788, "activity_lines": [ 5.696, 5.949273, 6.55319, 6.805269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.92, "volume": 20561934, "typical_volume": 49498308.3, "trend": 6.975333, "fair_value": 6.553714, "relative_strength": -17.462268, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.114652, "energy": 81.194584, "activity_lines": [ 5.750667, 5.888182, 6.456381, 6.734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.88, "volume": 24879282, "typical_volume": 49167000.0, "trend": 6.941333, "fair_value": 6.54955, "relative_strength": -12.537698, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.538511, "energy": 74.569065, "activity_lines": [ 5.792, 5.845091, 6.363286, 6.663333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.6, "volume": 23448953, "typical_volume": 48771290.35, "trend": 6.897667, "fair_value": 6.544528, "relative_strength": -17.328886, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.906066, "energy": 60.907689, "activity_lines": [ 5.752, 5.776727, 6.251762, 6.576796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.95, "volume": 22288357, "typical_volume": 48742048.55, "trend": 6.865, "fair_value": 6.539501, "relative_strength": -12.157412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.361915, "energy": 44.115195, "activity_lines": [ 5.826667, 5.792909, 6.181095, 6.515656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.94, "volume": 23110299, "typical_volume": 43112300.95, "trend": 6.834, "fair_value": 6.53491, "relative_strength": -14.220532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.406666, "energy": 39.294209, "activity_lines": [ 5.865333, 5.815818, 6.11519, 6.455978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }