{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f88d0d2-187c-424c-9ce9-362c08f27be2", "symbol": "000958", "name": "SPIC Industry-Finance Holdings Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.764, "architecture_energy": 48.775, "architecture_maturity": 48.998, "architecture_confidence": 88.043, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.48, "rotation_up": 17.89, "upward_expansion": 6.86, "deceleration": 53.08, "rotation_down": 60.22, "downward_expansion": 80.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.426, 5.518182, 5.727524, 5.898043 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.47, "trend_reference": 6.133667, "distance_from_trend": -0.108201, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.402689, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.012459, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.10003, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.161043, "excess_performance": -0.168443, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108201, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056804, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.012459, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140679, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.171, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088726, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.161043, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.815941, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 152933233, "relative_activity": 1.03756, "balance": 0.815941, "dry_up": 0.754807, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068626, "annualized_volatility": 0.228247, "from_high_reference": -0.270667, "from_low_reference": 0.051923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.133667, "fair_value_reference": 5.402689, "structural_low": 5.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.016349, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": 0.0239, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.228228, "worst_return": -0.107239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.002564, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.011249, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.152113, "worst_return": -0.121711, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.024692, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.021043, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.661972, "worst_return": -0.097308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"trend": 6.246333, "fair_value": 5.378833, "relative_strength": -16.85456, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.101995, "energy": 78.196034, "activity_lines": [ 5.486667, 5.717636, 5.890762, 6.049398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.3, "volume": 115837323, "typical_volume": 162162711.0, "trend": 6.202667, "fair_value": 5.386218, "relative_strength": -17.994783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.676508, "energy": 78.793934, "activity_lines": [ 5.4, 5.617091, 5.817762, 5.988344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.5, "volume": 77426129, "typical_volume": 151424922.05, "trend": 6.167, "fair_value": 5.39458, "relative_strength": -12.944008, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.003239, "energy": 66.856427, "activity_lines": [ 5.414667, 5.565273, 5.770952, 5.943011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.47, "volume": 152933233, "typical_volume": 147396997.65, "trend": 6.133667, "fair_value": 5.402689, "relative_strength": -17.10003, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.763839, "energy": 48.775192, "activity_lines": [ 5.426, 5.518182, 5.727524, 5.898043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }