{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f909ffa-0a61-41d7-a4f6-08c243620d6f", "symbol": "IBST", "name": "Ibstock plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.609, "architecture_energy": 34.375, "architecture_maturity": 84.558, "architecture_confidence": 87.489, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.0, "rotation_up": 26.03, "upward_expansion": 4.32, "deceleration": 59.84, "rotation_down": 44.15, "downward_expansion": 77.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.935233, 0.937545, 0.958966, 0.993958 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.9295, "trend_reference": 1.063295, "distance_from_trend": -0.12583, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.430311, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.350141, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.668128, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.289932, "excess_performance": -0.341167, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12583, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107317, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.350141, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029765, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.276681, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027907, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.289932, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.431775, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11097355, "relative_activity": 1.950572, "balance": 0.431775, "dry_up": 1.214903, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079739, "annualized_volatility": 0.374277, "from_high_reference": -0.364641, "from_low_reference": 0.060468 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.063295, "fair_value_reference": 1.430311, "structural_low": 0.8765, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.000841, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007488, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.198823, "worst_return": -0.089509, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.027812, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.008339, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.115476, "worst_return": -0.168702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.086592, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.077706, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.136687, "worst_return": -0.135068, "sufficient": true }, { 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40.418631, "activity_lines": [ 0.942567, 0.948336, 0.975124, 1.024652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.9405, "volume": 4524162, "typical_volume": 5888526.7, "trend": 1.09267, "fair_value": 1.436573, "relative_strength": -27.434523, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.702428, "energy": 38.152555, "activity_lines": [ 0.943667, 0.945464, 0.969818, 1.013898 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.9315, "volume": 7473593, "typical_volume": 5613992.05, "trend": 1.077391, "fair_value": 1.433495, "relative_strength": -28.155516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.898507, "energy": 37.88652, "activity_lines": [ 0.9393, 0.941255, 0.964302, 1.003499 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.9295, "volume": 11097355, "typical_volume": 5689282.65, "trend": 1.063295, "fair_value": 1.430311, "relative_strength": -27.668128, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.609036, "energy": 34.374624, "activity_lines": [ 0.935233, 0.937545, 0.958966, 0.993958 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }