{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f9498cd-1c5c-4f51-9e07-65471080a225", "symbol": "5426", "name": "Cheng Fwa Industrial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 65.229, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.356, "architecture_energy": 20.405, "architecture_maturity": 74.603, "architecture_confidence": 77.159, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.35, "rotation_up": 22.74, "upward_expansion": 54.15, "deceleration": 90.97, "rotation_down": 33.99, "downward_expansion": 20.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.306667, 27.794545, 26.700238, 25.003119 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 28.0, "trend_reference": 23.093334, "distance_from_trend": 0.212471, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.750122, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.087373, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.063323, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.477572, "excess_performance": 0.0362, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.212471, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.160178, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.087373, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.363619, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100633, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.355009, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.477572, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.565592, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12418453, "relative_activity": 1.691557, "balance": 1.565592, "dry_up": 0.866107, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.193269, "annualized_volatility": 0.82065, "from_high_reference": -0.304348, "from_low_reference": 0.6 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.093334, "fair_value_reference": 25.750122, "structural_low": 17.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.004444, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.020868, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.674556, "worst_return": -0.226913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.048, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.069423, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.739437, "worst_return": -0.194444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.016344, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.062708, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.902985, "worst_return": -0.192082, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.143236, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.132901, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.229755, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.263889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115682, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.08913, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084577, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053672, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123539, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074856, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 13.132534, "volume": 2473000, "typical_volume": 10269250.0, "trend": 13.24913, "fair_value": 11.551305, "relative_strength": -9.910459, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", 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25.589579, "relative_strength": -20.93348, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.813445, "energy": 24.690608, "activity_lines": [ 26.223333, 28.585455, 26.110476, 24.431721 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.25, "volume": 3077447, "typical_volume": 6779659.05, "trend": 22.803334, "fair_value": 25.661729, "relative_strength": -13.771443, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.175698, "energy": 24.711598, "activity_lines": [ 25.79, 28.1, 26.337619, 24.66785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 28.0, "volume": 12418453, "typical_volume": 7341431.5, "trend": 23.093334, "fair_value": 25.750122, "relative_strength": -10.063323, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.356437, "energy": 20.40528, "activity_lines": [ 26.306667, 27.794545, 26.700238, 25.003119 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }