{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f983e5d-f096-4039-a5bd-1624ba0bf3dc", "symbol": "FXU", "name": "FIRST TRUST EXCH TRADED FUND 2 UTILITIES ALPHADEX FD USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.232, "architecture_energy": 4.808, "architecture_maturity": 38.07, "architecture_confidence": 67.563, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.81, "rotation_up": 30.49, "upward_expansion": 55.29, "deceleration": 76.05, "rotation_down": 25.34, "downward_expansion": 21.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.935333, 49.163778, 48.938832, 48.976356 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 48.08, "trend_reference": 48.780047, "distance_from_trend": -0.014351, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.645256, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.244137, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.149073, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.028425, "excess_performance": -0.0972, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014351, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02608, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.244137, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033332, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091491, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016834, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028425, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.923717, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1134204, "relative_activity": 0.864438, "balance": 0.923717, "dry_up": 0.891148, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032727, "annualized_volatility": 0.182913, "from_high_reference": -0.068578, "from_low_reference": 0.133983 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.780047, "fair_value_reference": 38.645256, "structural_low": 46.402739, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.014609, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.005786, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.088332, "worst_return": -0.090066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014421, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.030177, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.093724, "worst_return": -0.146187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.012789, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.012179, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.121173, "worst_return": 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3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.388459, "energy": 37.471002, "activity_lines": [ 49.527962, 48.955487, 48.917885, 48.805888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.64, "volume": 1332205, "typical_volume": 1577155.6, "trend": 48.383323, "fair_value": 38.272264, "relative_strength": -2.816376, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.335561, "energy": 43.495499, "activity_lines": [ 49.669346, 49.163214, 48.967676, 48.898293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.27, "volume": 1203137, "typical_volume": 1446931.5, "trend": 48.565316, "fair_value": 38.400233, "relative_strength": -0.987523, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.704661, "energy": 52.425123, "activity_lines": [ 49.928667, 49.443543, 49.082811, 49.020014 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.48, "volume": 1007452, "typical_volume": 1400822.25, "trend": 48.671386, "fair_value": 38.524773, "relative_strength": -5.377722, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.809895, "energy": 21.604398, "activity_lines": [ 49.44, 49.338322, 49.025596, 49.014509 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.08, "volume": 1134204, "typical_volume": 1312071.25, "trend": 48.780047, "fair_value": 38.645256, "relative_strength": -9.149073, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.231924, "energy": 4.808419, "activity_lines": [ 48.935333, 49.163778, 48.938832, 48.976356 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }