{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f98d258-520d-459b-b698-80acc5ab5534", "symbol": "002498", "name": "Qingdao Hanhe Cable Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.829, "architecture_energy": 28.955, "architecture_maturity": 22.281, "architecture_confidence": 59.478, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.11, "rotation_up": 27.11, "upward_expansion": 10.85, "deceleration": 61.99, "rotation_down": 46.44, "downward_expansion": 47.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.516, 6.563564, 7.216749, 7.470064 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.82, "trend_reference": 7.372042, "distance_from_trend": -0.074883, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.254203, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.603121, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.664309, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.329435, "excess_performance": 0.322035, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.074883, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.153352, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.603121, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.677617, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.156643, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.407818, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.329435, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.004563, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1008608350, "relative_activity": 1.589182, "balance": 1.004563, "dry_up": 1.146626, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157362, "annualized_volatility": 0.714713, "from_high_reference": -0.41386, "from_low_reference": 0.976812 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.372042, "fair_value_reference": 4.254203, "structural_low": 5.03, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.032787, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.006426, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.032787, "worst_return": -0.032787, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.098361, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.065244, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.098361, "worst_return": -0.098361, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.075579, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.121338, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.075579, "worst_return": 0.075579, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085366, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157217, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.05152, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.078212, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039604, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.983852, 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7.549196, 7.559341 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.5, "volume": 368961680, "typical_volume": 700073904.95, "trend": 7.174375, "fair_value": 4.216051, "relative_strength": 16.394381, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.222461, "energy": 60.952112, "activity_lines": [ 6.157333, 6.627067, 7.403095, 7.521468 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.83, "volume": 1278909249, "typical_volume": 661256581.6, "trend": 7.272375, "fair_value": 4.235128, "relative_strength": 23.002322, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.830647, "energy": 43.132597, "activity_lines": [ 6.338667, 6.577762, 7.304279, 7.49925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.82, "volume": 1008608350, "typical_volume": 634671416.4, "trend": 7.372042, "fair_value": 4.254203, "relative_strength": 15.664309, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.828874, "energy": 28.954957, "activity_lines": [ 6.516, 6.563564, 7.216749, 7.470064 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }