{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f9d8949-5b97-4266-9466-5f520d4bf9ae", "symbol": "AFLT", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Floating Rate USD Corporate ESG - UCITS ETF DR - USD (C)", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.233, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.249, "architecture_energy": 78.787, "architecture_maturity": 34.414, "architecture_confidence": 79.261, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.9, "rotation_up": 72.6, "upward_expansion": 94.56, "deceleration": 44.29, "rotation_down": 20.13, "downward_expansion": 16.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 138.333997, 138.125829, 137.6976, 137.254385 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 138.429993, "trend_reference": 136.677743, "distance_from_trend": 0.01282, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 128.565404, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.076728, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.532903, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.020404, "excess_performance": -0.032908, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01282, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008587, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.076728, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002729, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045329, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053009, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020404, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.006905, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4903, "relative_activity": 0.728177, "balance": 5.006905, "dry_up": 1.662422, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00276, "annualized_volatility": 0.009459, "from_high_reference": -0.001947, "from_low_reference": 0.048021 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 136.677743, "fair_value_reference": 128.565404, "structural_low": 135.136795, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 49, "median_return": 0.004478, "positive_rate": 0.959184, "directional_follow_through": 0.959184, "median_excess_return": 0.000289, "regime_survival": 0.979592, "best_return": 0.012979, "worst_return": -0.013059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.013605, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.011221, "regime_survival": 0.933333, "best_return": 0.019904, "worst_return": 0.007468, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.030787, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.016011, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.036102, "worst_return": 0.020198, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -0.905276, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.647271, "energy": 91.682318, "activity_lines": [ 138.112663, 137.897996, 137.432539, 137.009491 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 138.380005, "volume": 4442, "typical_volume": 7216.95, "trend": 136.564577, "fair_value": 128.432234, "relative_strength": -2.400729, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.360936, "energy": 83.592596, "activity_lines": [ 138.239999, 138.018056, 137.569294, 137.134036 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 138.429993, "volume": 4903, "typical_volume": 6733.25, "trend": 136.677743, "fair_value": 128.565404, "relative_strength": -4.532903, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.248937, "energy": 78.786584, "activity_lines": [ 138.333997, 138.125829, 137.6976, 137.254385 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }