{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4f9ffe01-de1e-4a7a-8e5f-7aab81949b2e", "symbol": "DSW", "name": "DSW Capital plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.859, "architecture_energy": 18.823, "architecture_maturity": 51.734, "architecture_confidence": 65.899, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.04, "rotation_up": 21.26, "upward_expansion": 7.66, "deceleration": 60.52, "rotation_down": 38.15, "downward_expansion": 66.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.429267, 0.428345, 0.432019, 0.448245 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.435, "trend_reference": 0.4842, "distance_from_trend": -0.101611, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.520904, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.164913, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.80144, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.275, "excess_performance": -0.326235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.101611, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08929, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.164913, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006896, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.218014, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000304, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.275, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.233082, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 132957, "relative_activity": 1.767448, "balance": 1.233082, "dry_up": 1.040878, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.150398, "annualized_volatility": 0.3532, "from_high_reference": -0.45625, "from_low_reference": 0.242857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.4842, "fair_value_reference": 0.520904, "structural_low": 0.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.017544, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.019467, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.330967, "worst_return": -0.111111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.029751, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.330967, "worst_return": -0.099099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.035049, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.086294, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.40658, "worst_return": -0.1838, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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74204.45, "trend": 0.501167, "fair_value": 0.523335, "relative_strength": -23.599883, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.304448, "energy": 19.189253, "activity_lines": [ 0.429667, 0.427727, 0.433714, 0.456785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.426, "volume": 66806, "typical_volume": 76084.45, "trend": 0.4922, "fair_value": 0.52209, "relative_strength": -23.745104, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.054978, "energy": 20.043213, "activity_lines": [ 0.428, 0.427, 0.432143, 0.451935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.435, "volume": 132957, "typical_volume": 75225.4, "trend": 0.4842, "fair_value": 0.520904, "relative_strength": -21.80144, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.858751, "energy": 18.822768, "activity_lines": [ 0.429267, 0.428345, 0.432019, 0.448245 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }