{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4fab37ad-6687-4154-9557-36dd418a4fa9", "symbol": "301376", "name": "Ziel Home Furnishing Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 82.338, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 38.278, "architecture_energy": 33.659, "architecture_maturity": 19.794, "architecture_confidence": 59.346, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.45, "rotation_up": 50.72, "upward_expansion": 49.53, "deceleration": 33.36, "rotation_down": 23.05, "downward_expansion": 12.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.65, 18.206727, 17.722625, 17.560671 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.84, "trend_reference": 17.676109, "distance_from_trend": 0.122419, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.658342, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.009241, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.536108, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.001399, "excess_performance": -0.006001, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.122419, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012189, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.009241, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.133581, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.055361, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.2821, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001399, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.011821, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23264903, "relative_activity": 1.473381, "balance": 2.011821, "dry_up": 1.031054, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096196, "annualized_volatility": 0.392425, "from_high_reference": -0.065598, "from_low_reference": 0.313557 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.676109, "fair_value_reference": 19.658342, "structural_low": 15.104022, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.04843, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.011487, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.100457, "worst_return": -0.056434, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.015676, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.141954, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.084508, "worst_return": -0.133871, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.016497, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.108388, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.028027, "worst_return": -0.040104, "sufficient": false }, { 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"relative_strength": -1.146942, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.67192, "energy": 20.892202, "activity_lines": [ 18.172, 17.686231, 17.354103, 17.386907 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.09, "volume": 15988404, "typical_volume": 15375398.45, "trend": 17.610561, "fair_value": 19.676583, "relative_strength": 1.104557, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.63072, "energy": 28.266764, "activity_lines": [ 18.156, 17.782881, 17.457642, 17.416836 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.84, "volume": 23264903, "typical_volume": 15790148.4, "trend": 17.676109, "fair_value": 19.658342, "relative_strength": 5.536108, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.278245, "energy": 33.658798, "activity_lines": [ 18.65, 18.206727, 17.722625, 17.560671 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }