{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4fae2043-08aa-4828-912a-a6c397feadb3", "symbol": "NCL", "name": "NCL International Logistics Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.0, "architecture_energy": 59.501, "architecture_maturity": 74.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.418, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.79, "rotation_up": 13.79, "upward_expansion": 11.17, "deceleration": 40.32, "rotation_down": 65.2, "downward_expansion": 84.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.164, 0.172727, 0.182143, 0.191763 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.15, "trend_reference": 0.203333, "distance_from_trend": -0.262295, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.528077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.71595, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -45.110753, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.285714, "excess_performance": -0.478039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.262295, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119769, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.71595, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013858, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.451108, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111196, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.285714, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.655938, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3017000, "relative_activity": 0.99606, "balance": 0.655938, "dry_up": 1.102145, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.2, "annualized_volatility": 0.89497, "from_high_reference": -0.651163, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.203333, "fair_value_reference": 0.528077, "structural_low": 0.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.27907, "directional_follow_through": 0.604651, "median_excess_return": -0.049997, "regime_survival": 0.860465, "best_return": 0.72973, "worst_return": -0.514423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.062771, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.102991, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.528846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.305648, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.248333, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.068966, "worst_return": -0.608527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.215686, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.27027, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.269231, 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35.489369, "activity_lines": [ 0.186, 0.186545, 0.197524, 0.205204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.19, "volume": 3065400, "typical_volume": 2884800.0, "trend": 0.214667, "fair_value": 0.576859, "relative_strength": -33.631998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.611686, "energy": 20.405373, "activity_lines": [ 0.189333, 0.186727, 0.195857, 0.203484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.18, "volume": 6754100, "typical_volume": 3140575.0, "trend": 0.211667, "fair_value": 0.564295, "relative_strength": -37.300746, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.871349, "energy": 20.002981, "activity_lines": [ 0.188667, 0.185273, 0.193476, 0.201247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.16, "volume": 3011200, "typical_volume": 3117105.0, "trend": 0.209, "fair_value": 0.552821, "relative_strength": -43.809381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.74661, "energy": 36.775913, "activity_lines": [ 0.178, 0.180364, 0.189429, 0.197914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.17, "volume": 571000, "typical_volume": 3018305.0, "trend": 0.206333, "fair_value": 0.540577, "relative_strength": -38.997725, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.29049, "energy": 39.744028, "activity_lines": [ 0.173333, 0.178182, 0.186619, 0.195398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.15, "volume": 3017000, "typical_volume": 3028935.0, "trend": 0.203333, "fair_value": 0.528077, "relative_strength": -45.110753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.999919, "energy": 59.501336, "activity_lines": [ 0.164, 0.172727, 0.182143, 0.191763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }