{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4faefee8-7c43-4edc-bec0-05dd5cd1419c", "symbol": "BUSE", "name": "First Busey Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.715, "architecture_energy": 68.234, "architecture_maturity": 44.135, "architecture_confidence": 80.778, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 72.99, "upward_expansion": 87.91, "deceleration": 50.52, "rotation_down": 14.99, "downward_expansion": 12.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.419995, 29.861703, 28.766036, 27.918634 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 30.98, "trend_reference": 26.899643, "distance_from_trend": 0.151688, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.839226, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.356438, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.30625, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.147329, "excess_performance": -0.040124, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.151688, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078922, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.356438, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144694, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.073063, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137199, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.147329, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.538788, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3529539, "relative_activity": 0.999401, "balance": 2.538788, "dry_up": 1.249113, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043707, "annualized_volatility": 0.185848, "from_high_reference": -0.022713, "from_low_reference": 0.452494 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.899643, "fair_value_reference": 22.839226, "structural_low": 23.585764, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.024684, "positive_rate": 0.347826, "directional_follow_through": 0.347826, "median_excess_return": -0.024034, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.10265, "worst_return": -0.111278, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.000817, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.079357, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.140183, "worst_return": -0.141035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.102648, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.115847, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.224967, "worst_return": -0.314191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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29.502554, 28.432009, 27.63948 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.98, "volume": 3529539, "typical_volume": 3531655.1, "trend": 26.899643, "fair_value": 22.839226, "relative_strength": 7.30625, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.714766, "energy": 68.234432, "activity_lines": [ 30.419995, 29.861703, 28.766036, 27.918634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }