{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4fb61fe8-2015-41fe-8e3b-7ac93865c949", "symbol": "SMSWLD", "name": "Invesco MSCI World UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.155, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.2, "architecture_energy": 68.127, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.457, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.98, "rotation_up": 54.84, "upward_expansion": 82.96, "deceleration": 71.32, "rotation_down": 28.35, "downward_expansion": 11.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 135.473998, 134.847089, 132.789475, 130.0283 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 138.199997, "trend_reference": 126.796333, "distance_from_trend": 0.089937, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 107.205833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.289109, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.139271, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.144798, "excess_performance": -0.026094, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089937, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04195, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.289109, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042179, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031393, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002763, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.144798, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.82858, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39105, "relative_activity": 0.97398, "balance": 2.82858, "dry_up": 1.001919, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017967, "annualized_volatility": 0.107923, "from_high_reference": -0.001301, "from_low_reference": 0.242359 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 126.796333, "fair_value_reference": 107.205833, "structural_low": 114.93, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.010738, "positive_rate": 0.634146, "directional_follow_through": 0.634146, "median_excess_return": -0.002951, "regime_survival": 0.878049, "best_return": 0.068966, "worst_return": -0.082218, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.025817, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.001086, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.099758, "worst_return": -0.151281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.085546, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.009303, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.151945, "worst_return": -0.07531, "sufficient": true }, { 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"up", "direction": 77.600942, "energy": 86.884576, "activity_lines": [ 134.422665, 133.446545, 129.994714, 127.565871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 134.179993, "volume": 44361, "typical_volume": 43850.65, "trend": 125.303, "fair_value": 106.207372, "relative_strength": -2.904018, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.716083, "energy": 75.27512, "activity_lines": [ 134.520664, 133.760362, 130.697856, 128.171225 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 134.610001, "volume": 46199, "typical_volume": 42565.2, "trend": 125.807667, "fair_value": 106.527692, "relative_strength": -2.363296, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.363328, "energy": 64.465377, "activity_lines": [ 134.611998, 134.045998, 131.383094, 128.771677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 133.360001, "volume": 31242, "typical_volume": 41329.45, "trend": 126.274667, "fair_value": 106.849167, "relative_strength": -3.83235, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.017206, "energy": 59.094965, "activity_lines": [ 134.250666, 134.020181, 131.887332, 129.258924 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 138.199997, "volume": 39105, "typical_volume": 40149.7, "trend": 126.796333, "fair_value": 107.205833, "relative_strength": -3.139271, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.199723, "energy": 68.127178, "activity_lines": [ 135.473998, 134.847089, 132.789475, 130.0283 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }