{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4fb7c03a-87e5-464f-b2f2-9a98dd005375", "symbol": "000889", "name": "ZJBC Information Technology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.034, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.367, "architecture_energy": 15.903, "architecture_maturity": 31.66, "architecture_confidence": 70.956, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.85, "rotation_up": 26.84, "upward_expansion": 15.72, "deceleration": 39.59, "rotation_down": 31.45, "downward_expansion": 63.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.648667, 3.541091, 3.81281, 3.85686 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.98, "trend_reference": 3.86, "distance_from_trend": 0.031088, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.746346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.449198, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.70276, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.105556, "excess_performance": 0.098156, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031088, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02402, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.449198, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.647805, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007028, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174993, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105556, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.861864, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 412658738, "relative_activity": 1.012588, "balance": 0.861864, "dry_up": 0.968392, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149787, "annualized_volatility": 0.822089, "from_high_reference": -0.324278, "from_low_reference": 0.396491 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.86, "fair_value_reference": 2.746346, "structural_low": 2.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.023529, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.186553, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.288026, "worst_return": -0.29368, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.133829, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.305321, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.267658, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.136158, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.172391, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.017647, "worst_return": -0.289963, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.038126, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.131318, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.429412, "worst_return": -0.35316, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068966, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103659, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104046, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109705, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.293478, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.126404, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.15991, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.097493, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061584, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.216092, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156576, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12766, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.288026, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 1.93, "volume": 117996107, "typical_volume": 71230216.95, "trend": 1.861667, "fair_value": 3.674679, "relative_strength": 3.211061, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.780927, 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-37.889768, "energy": 53.972869, "activity_lines": [ 3.244, 3.479636, 3.868048, 3.876817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.58, "volume": 561004403, "typical_volume": 378247026.45, "trend": 3.849, "fair_value": 2.721474, "relative_strength": -6.588356, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.969841, "energy": 42.894823, "activity_lines": [ 3.310667, 3.447455, 3.834048, 3.859204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.68, "volume": 335165805, "typical_volume": 390706917.05, "trend": 3.847333, "fair_value": 2.733654, "relative_strength": -2.266231, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.581243, "energy": 24.117382, "activity_lines": [ 3.44, 3.462, 3.809667, 3.848301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.98, "volume": 412658738, "typical_volume": 407528614.95, "trend": 3.86, "fair_value": 2.746346, "relative_strength": 0.70276, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.367098, "energy": 15.903303, "activity_lines": [ 3.648667, 3.541091, 3.81281, 3.85686 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }