{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4fbccc14-dbd4-49a7-ab0b-621cc4709baf", "symbol": "FNGD", "name": "Bank of Montreal", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -82.743, "architecture_energy": 59.846, "architecture_maturity": 53.978, "architecture_confidence": 90.604, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.69, "rotation_up": 26.49, "upward_expansion": 9.0, "deceleration": 51.65, "rotation_down": 59.41, "downward_expansion": 84.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.433667, 34.086545, 36.51781, 42.356409 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 26.559, "trend_reference": 49.299633, "distance_from_trend": -0.461274, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 243.90634, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.89111, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.420947, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.593899, "excess_performance": -0.719524, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.461274, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09034, "read": "Falling" 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26.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 48, "median_return": -0.075203, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.094328, "regime_survival": 0.895833, "best_return": 0.496317, "worst_return": -0.427258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.219855, "positive_rate": 0.1875, "directional_follow_through": 0.8125, "median_excess_return": -0.237733, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.289097, "worst_return": -0.456554, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.368835, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.482766, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.280497, "worst_return": -0.674435, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 2440838.0, "trend": 50.845667, "fair_value": 255.028654, "relative_strength": -33.283488, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.712085, "energy": 49.180466, "activity_lines": [ 36.014, 36.014, 39.29019, 44.94271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.36, "volume": 2051861, "typical_volume": 2415920.25, "trend": 50.161, "fair_value": 249.800192, "relative_strength": -38.600759, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.862892, "energy": 49.177254, "activity_lines": [ 35.338, 35.730909, 38.202857, 43.879118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.559, "volume": 2193453, "typical_volume": 2436682.1, "trend": 49.299633, "fair_value": 243.90634, "relative_strength": -53.420947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.742661, "energy": 59.846079, "activity_lines": [ 32.433667, 34.086545, 36.51781, 42.356409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }