{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4fbd6757-c06f-4fbf-82f7-d7e2de98a95b", "symbol": "603399", "name": "Jinzhou Yongshan Lithium Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 3.418, "architecture_energy": 22.595, "architecture_maturity": 38.03, "architecture_confidence": 66.258, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.84, "rotation_up": 17.85, "upward_expansion": 40.06, "deceleration": 76.2, "rotation_down": 43.12, "downward_expansion": 38.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.824667, 16.161454, 17.060809, 16.157355 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.5, "trend_reference": 14.785, "distance_from_trend": 0.04836, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.118654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.531824, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 20.935988, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.396396, "excess_performance": 0.4396, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04836, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.161673, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.531824, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.966591, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.20936, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.820135, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.396396, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.341101, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 284624190, "relative_activity": 1.069919, "balance": 0.341101, "dry_up": 1.134512, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.211266, "annualized_volatility": 0.932781, "from_high_reference": -0.392633, "from_low_reference": 0.69214 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.785, "fair_value_reference": 10.118654, "structural_low": 9.55, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.041128, "positive_rate": 0.909091, "directional_follow_through": 0.909091, "median_excess_return": 0.024703, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.806084, "worst_return": -0.042945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.087541, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.058001, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 2.196451, "worst_return": -0.001101, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.141646, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.088772, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.120354, "worst_return": -0.147044, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.227656, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.026316, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075163, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.098272, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046226, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", 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17.735818, 17.430286, 16.082387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.55, "volume": 299753388, "typical_volume": 240914994.85, "trend": 14.465, "fair_value": 10.063846, "relative_strength": 10.644196, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.017118, "energy": 17.079004, "activity_lines": [ 15.226666, 16.871091, 17.196571, 16.029591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.56, "volume": 392966533, "typical_volume": 255590993.2, "trend": 14.614667, "fair_value": 10.090577, "relative_strength": 25.622547, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.71068, "energy": 23.591544, "activity_lines": [ 14.872, 16.5, 17.142428, 16.100236 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.5, "volume": 284624190, "typical_volume": 266024142.5, "trend": 14.785, "fair_value": 10.118654, "relative_strength": 20.935988, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.417877, "energy": 22.594829, "activity_lines": [ 14.824667, 16.161454, 17.060809, 16.157355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }