{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4fc2aefe-820c-483a-b8e0-a60d3172b59f", "symbol": "CMCL", "name": "Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.235, "architecture_energy": 45.054, "architecture_maturity": 71.774, "architecture_confidence": 85.331, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.11, "rotation_up": 25.61, "upward_expansion": 6.5, "deceleration": 59.23, "rotation_down": 47.44, "downward_expansion": 77.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 1450.666667, 1451.363636, 1538.974948, 1630.309748 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1615.0, "trend_reference": 1767.679797, "distance_from_trend": -0.086373, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1282.055235, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.259696, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.625133, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.215893, "excess_performance": -0.267129, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086373, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095305, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.259696, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152053, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.236251, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104798, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.215893, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.886645, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19281, "relative_activity": 1.222196, "balance": 0.886645, "dry_up": 1.352507, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093354, "annualized_volatility": 0.539665, "from_high_reference": -0.442978, "from_low_reference": 0.292 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1767.679797, "fair_value_reference": 1282.055235, "structural_low": 1250.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.02507, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": 0.039876, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.133958, "worst_return": -0.177419, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.149215, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.151186, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.439744, "worst_return": -0.087466, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.000293, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.049703, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.096727, "worst_return": -0.054618, "sufficient": true }, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.451221, "energy": 72.014599, "activity_lines": [ 1383.666667, 1448.363636, 1563.530242, 1668.115718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1390.0, "volume": 9654, "typical_volume": 19277.35, "trend": 1786.16816, "fair_value": 1277.879999, "relative_strength": -34.335782, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.469847, "energy": 71.698962, "activity_lines": [ 1375.666667, 1426.272727, 1539.205723, 1641.352855 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1615.0, "volume": 19281, "typical_volume": 15775.7, "trend": 1767.679797, "fair_value": 1282.055235, "relative_strength": -23.625133, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.235166, "energy": 45.05419, "activity_lines": [ 1450.666667, 1451.363636, 1538.974948, 1630.309748 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }