{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4fc3c680-da4c-4db9-b1b9-5b7b0540121d", "symbol": "TSMN", "name": "Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.615, "architecture_energy": 22.706, "architecture_maturity": 66.733, "architecture_confidence": 91.753, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.39, "rotation_up": 18.47, "upward_expansion": 51.94, "deceleration": 93.96, "rotation_down": 34.75, "downward_expansion": 17.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 7119.516667, 7286.172291, 7233.20354, 7016.975646 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7200.0, "trend_reference": 6718.527065, "distance_from_trend": 0.071663, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4022.558572, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.789906, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.887527, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.196199, "excess_performance": 0.250865, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071663, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107939, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.789906, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190853, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.168875, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047452, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.196199, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.861131, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6207, "relative_activity": 0.875397, "balance": 0.861131, "dry_up": 1.228545, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069455, "annualized_volatility": 0.302373, "from_high_reference": -0.111111, "from_low_reference": 0.711825 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6718.527065, "fair_value_reference": 4022.558572, "structural_low": 5700.009766, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.022502, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.039, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.192369, "worst_return": -0.019766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.122548, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.06221, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.293498, "worst_return": -0.174482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.159719, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.143779, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.352951, "worst_return": -0.370615, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"trend": 6631.200453, "fair_value": 3952.289744, "relative_strength": 16.711732, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.171314, "energy": 22.405816, "activity_lines": [ 7256.526009, 7383.489414, 7203.434252, 6957.923858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7020.0, "volume": 16802, "typical_volume": 6955.55, "trend": 6673.49684, "fair_value": 3986.482579, "relative_strength": 14.69593, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.03027, "energy": 21.967323, "activity_lines": [ 7139.895345, 7318.748479, 7212.042965, 6983.0077 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7200.0, "volume": 6207, "typical_volume": 7090.5, "trend": 6718.527065, "fair_value": 4022.558572, "relative_strength": 16.887527, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.61504, "energy": 22.705894, "activity_lines": [ 7119.516667, 7286.172291, 7233.20354, 7016.975646 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }