{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4fc5da27-0fd2-4c8b-8620-86f635e2a769", "symbol": "A1PH34", "name": "Amphenol Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.59, "architecture_energy": 28.406, "architecture_maturity": 41.617, "architecture_confidence": 62.336, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.73, "rotation_up": 41.33, "upward_expansion": 64.1, "deceleration": 64.48, "rotation_down": 22.49, "downward_expansion": 14.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 407.641337, 408.632048, 390.691179, 381.506306 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 427.76001, "trend_reference": 375.589044, "distance_from_trend": 0.138904, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 237.014705, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.804783, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.800169, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.195852, "excess_performance": 0.252901, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.138904, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032586, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.804783, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.328587, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.138002, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.32859, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.195852, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.842362, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5224, "relative_activity": 4.059998, "balance": 3.842362, "dry_up": 1.468485, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096133, "annualized_volatility": 0.463693, "from_high_reference": -0.072104, "from_low_reference": 0.495063 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 375.589044, "fair_value_reference": 237.014705, "structural_low": 296.332355, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.000871, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.014075, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.192506, "worst_return": -0.104173, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.083826, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.004248, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.23573, "worst_return": -0.215301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.113135, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.177637, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.477821, "worst_return": -0.061166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121637, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.375392, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.145115, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136478, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.155323, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073914, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.104008, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026284, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046628, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045204, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 106.011826, "volume": 140, "typical_volume": 42.2, "trend": 97.132731, "fair_value": 91.631187, "relative_strength": 5.517699, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 95.237512, 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"typical_volume": 1723.7, "trend": 372.21815, "fair_value": 231.176881, "relative_strength": 3.586396, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.940406, "energy": 50.303006, "activity_lines": [ 409.385602, 400.361667, 380.061918, 374.813433 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 384.799988, "volume": 281, "typical_volume": 956.6, "trend": 372.33081, "fair_value": 232.978763, "relative_strength": 1.8855, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.76692, "energy": 27.401294, "activity_lines": [ 399.033997, 400.305584, 381.678569, 375.625165 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 409.26001, "volume": 1933, "typical_volume": 1041.0, "trend": 373.531528, "fair_value": 234.937439, "relative_strength": 5.810167, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.265947, "energy": 22.55945, "activity_lines": [ 399.819334, 403.477689, 385.434421, 378.007694 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 427.76001, "volume": 5224, "typical_volume": 1286.7, "trend": 375.589044, "fair_value": 237.014705, "relative_strength": 13.800169, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.589874, "energy": 28.405528, "activity_lines": [ 407.641337, 408.632048, 390.691179, 381.506306 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }