{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4fc7c276-54e6-4ab3-a9af-eb51dae0bf7e", "symbol": "603006", "name": "Shanghai Lianming Machinery Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.855, "architecture_energy": 77.136, "architecture_maturity": 17.975, "architecture_confidence": 82.493, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.76, "rotation_up": 10.85, "upward_expansion": 20.06, "deceleration": 34.18, "rotation_down": 75.39, "downward_expansion": 91.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.588667, 11.568182, 12.374459, 12.629688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.01, "trend_reference": 12.948097, "distance_from_trend": -0.149682, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.217733, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.018518, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.516089, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.17623, "excess_performance": -0.133026, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.149682, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024489, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.018518, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.281186, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.155161, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137095, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17623, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.702348, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14512126, "relative_activity": 0.832874, "balance": 0.702348, "dry_up": 1.158676, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129784, "annualized_volatility": 0.469037, "from_high_reference": -0.321163, "from_low_reference": 0.199346 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.948097, "fair_value_reference": 11.217733, "structural_low": 9.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.055276, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": 0.022094, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 1.090129, "worst_return": -0.107438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.217053, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.11872, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.335976, "worst_return": -0.072314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.165777, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.11723, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.319053, "worst_return": -0.022511, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 6.872869, "activity_lines": [ 13.450667, 13.505709, 13.381697, 13.344764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.44, "volume": 27845400, "typical_volume": 16979511.25, "trend": 13.196201, "fair_value": 11.222986, "relative_strength": -17.368562, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.807508, "energy": 50.12045, "activity_lines": [ 12.476667, 12.934516, 13.112536, 13.16284 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.65, "volume": 20861070, "typical_volume": 17146464.75, "trend": 13.088977, "fair_value": 11.213766, "relative_strength": -24.227988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.65675, "energy": 75.144505, "activity_lines": [ 11.396, 12.281763, 12.784348, 12.934053 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.37, "volume": 17537190, "typical_volume": 17288784.25, "trend": 13.008685, "fair_value": 11.211473, "relative_strength": -18.52941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.095456, "energy": 78.312741, "activity_lines": [ 10.768667, 11.834405, 12.541819, 12.758635 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.01, "volume": 14512126, "typical_volume": 17424155.55, "trend": 12.948097, "fair_value": 11.217733, "relative_strength": -15.516089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.85493, "energy": 77.136245, "activity_lines": [ 10.588667, 11.568182, 12.374459, 12.629688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }