{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4fc96a74-5ce4-4d20-ba68-b82b6cee8043", "symbol": "JSM", "name": "Navient Corporation SR NT 6% 121543", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.337, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.279, "architecture_energy": 52.623, "architecture_maturity": 37.657, "architecture_confidence": 89.617, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.29, "rotation_up": 12.86, "upward_expansion": 10.28, "deceleration": 40.19, "rotation_down": 62.29, "downward_expansion": 83.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.584667, 17.707191, 17.843599, 17.934904 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.76, "trend_reference": 18.135621, "distance_from_trend": -0.020712, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.113914, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.037752, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.160607, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.053232, "excess_performance": -0.240685, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020712, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014722, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.037752, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052763, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.151606, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001692, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.053232, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.84448, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83456, "relative_activity": 1.356566, "balance": 0.84448, "dry_up": 1.060329, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026531, "annualized_volatility": 0.110084, "from_high_reference": -0.104119, "from_low_reference": 0.030162 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.135621, "fair_value_reference": 17.113914, "structural_low": 17.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.037766, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.000123, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.154426, "worst_return": -0.147115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.073197, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.030824, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.284149, "worst_return": -0.251027, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.01038, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.060078, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.325325, "worst_return": -0.080525, "sufficient": 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26.614055, "activity_lines": [ 18.009102, 18.030094, 18.03719, 18.179072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 18.02, "volume": 98360, "typical_volume": 70746.9, "trend": 18.362829, "fair_value": 17.029186, "relative_strength": -14.394135, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.891181, "energy": 20.370072, "activity_lines": [ 18.018367, 18.021531, 18.027659, 18.155849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.735, "volume": 49029, "typical_volume": 70315.2, "trend": 18.334794, "fair_value": 17.047595, "relative_strength": -16.864718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.180833, "energy": 27.388598, "activity_lines": [ 17.926333, 17.964241, 17.994457, 18.115344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.67, "volume": 64743, "typical_volume": 69046.85, "trend": 18.295632, "fair_value": 17.065384, "relative_strength": -13.280711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.501277, "energy": 42.128052, "activity_lines": [ 17.825333, 17.900644, 17.960303, 18.072454 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.325, "volume": 51949, "typical_volume": 67174.4, "trend": 18.231531, "fair_value": 17.080707, "relative_strength": -13.286177, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.752879, "energy": 60.229148, "activity_lines": [ 17.628, 17.78787, 17.897698, 18.009832 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.48, "volume": 60778, "typical_volume": 65451.3, "trend": 18.169863, "fair_value": 17.096005, "relative_strength": -12.613921, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.817149, "energy": 62.564195, "activity_lines": [ 17.546667, 17.717937, 17.855951, 17.961347 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.76, "volume": 83456, "typical_volume": 61520.05, "trend": 18.135621, "fair_value": 17.113914, "relative_strength": -15.160607, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.278714, "energy": 52.622761, "activity_lines": [ 17.584667, 17.707191, 17.843599, 17.934904 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }