{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4fcc9f77-7b2d-45cb-84a4-803f6c8058b5", "symbol": "USL", "name": "United States 12 Month Oil Fund LP", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.958, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.48, "architecture_energy": 24.034, "architecture_maturity": 38.184, "architecture_confidence": 52.751, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.03, "rotation_up": 54.32, "upward_expansion": 66.5, "deceleration": 64.81, "rotation_down": 15.1, "downward_expansion": 12.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.600813, 48.742933, 49.628016, 48.910645 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 48.1128, "trend_reference": 46.58339, "distance_from_trend": 0.032832, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.822166, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.239313, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.8207, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.323365, "excess_performance": 0.19774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032832, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120079, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.239313, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152114, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038207, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184855, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.323365, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.603778, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38366, "relative_activity": 0.232099, "balance": 0.603778, "dry_up": 0.347999, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067012, "annualized_volatility": 0.365258, "from_high_reference": -0.152197, "from_low_reference": 0.491685 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.58339, "fair_value_reference": 38.822166, "structural_low": 35.7601, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.003271, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003379, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.152451, "worst_return": -0.093497, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.001146, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.023415, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.29663, "worst_return": -0.105337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.014117, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.118387, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.599711, "worst_return": -0.141306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096701, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.124982, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030084, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087156, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008021, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"trend": 44.34175, "fair_value": 38.481004, "relative_strength": 4.220509, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.079641, "energy": 25.637869, "activity_lines": [ 46.243713, 48.372822, 49.450115, 47.647858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.48, "volume": 65874, "typical_volume": 213296.7, "trend": 44.927017, "fair_value": 38.578651, "relative_strength": 14.289325, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.739678, "energy": 21.777146, "activity_lines": [ 47.41052, 48.457769, 49.591316, 48.043874 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 51.7818, "volume": 50730, "typical_volume": 201860.15, "trend": 45.550743, "fair_value": 38.675201, "relative_strength": 17.442975, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.763375, "energy": 18.19437, "activity_lines": [ 49.036593, 48.810498, 49.798735, 48.486118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.1317, "volume": 75127, "typical_volume": 178008.35, "trend": 46.1136, "fair_value": 38.755802, "relative_strength": 12.193242, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.510945, "energy": 24.656312, "activity_lines": [ 49.828513, 48.926631, 49.812375, 48.781664 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.1128, "volume": 38366, "typical_volume": 165300.15, "trend": 46.58339, "fair_value": 38.822166, "relative_strength": 3.8207, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.479975, "energy": 24.034235, "activity_lines": [ 49.600813, 48.742933, 49.628016, 48.910645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }