{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4fdbe3bf-7ad5-4db1-91c5-bdba6eec6d5e", "symbol": "DVN", "name": "Devon Energy Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_to_3_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 2 \u2192 3 watch", "confidence": 56.262, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -5.714, "architecture_energy": 10.912, "architecture_maturity": 16.891, "architecture_confidence": 67.09, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.55, "rotation_up": 42.78, "upward_expansion": 32.53, "deceleration": 43.52, "rotation_down": 23.23, "downward_expansion": 23.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.028667, 43.417192, 44.275751, 44.769356 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 42.98, "trend_reference": 44.476864, "distance_from_trend": -0.033655, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.385099, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.091276, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.562992, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.006605, "excess_performance": -0.13223, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033655, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060805, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.091276, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055943, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04563, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131264, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006605, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.111162, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56611918, "relative_activity": 0.859837, "balance": 1.111162, "dry_up": 0.776416, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072541, "annualized_volatility": 0.361908, "from_high_reference": -0.178601, "from_low_reference": 0.391946 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.476864, "fair_value_reference": 39.385099, "structural_low": 39.995, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.001312, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.011394, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.241659, "worst_return": -0.176371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.061883, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.065114, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.29033, "worst_return": -0.158747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.010471, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.081634, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.222445, "worst_return": -0.169846, "sufficient": true 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.889667, "energy": 7.187519, "activity_lines": [ 44.148667, 43.495947, 44.53321, 44.849446 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.98, "volume": 56611918, "typical_volume": 65840291.05, "trend": 44.476864, "fair_value": 39.385099, "relative_strength": -4.562992, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.713579, "energy": 10.911853, "activity_lines": [ 44.028667, 43.417192, 44.275751, 44.769356 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }