{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4fdc5fc3-e6e4-4c2c-a65e-646a210160aa", "symbol": "XPEL", "name": "Xpel Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.477, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 2.313, "architecture_energy": 4.308, "architecture_maturity": 45.689, "architecture_confidence": 65.427, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.37, "rotation_up": 18.04, "upward_expansion": 21.88, "deceleration": 61.35, "rotation_down": 37.7, "downward_expansion": 55.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.800667, 45.869273, 45.594214, 45.34186 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 50.07, "trend_reference": 46.071167, "distance_from_trend": 0.086797, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.61141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.122359, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.093682, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.035817, "excess_performance": -0.223271, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086797, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012531, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.122359, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.204049, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000937, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122752, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035817, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.459428, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1976635, "relative_activity": 1.568574, "balance": 1.459428, "dry_up": 0.996631, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080265, "annualized_volatility": 0.462343, "from_high_reference": -0.104454, "from_low_reference": 0.589524 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.071167, "fair_value_reference": 44.61141, "structural_low": 36.99, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.01494, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.001951, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.532407, "worst_return": -0.301414, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.073631, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.115124, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.539855, "worst_return": -0.38666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.094963, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.217544, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.410788, "worst_return": -0.39357, 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.175974, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006639, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.128114, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051351, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028027, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.213466, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -35.675883, "energy": 16.479916, "activity_lines": [ 45.597333, 45.660364, 45.236714, 45.478946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.73, "volume": 1272659, "typical_volume": 1273460.05, "trend": 46.393167, "fair_value": 45.063526, "relative_strength": -9.281316, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.199916, "energy": 22.101356, "activity_lines": [ 44.435333, 45.198727, 45.088262, 45.222548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.37, "volume": 915265, "typical_volume": 1256109.0, "trend": 46.1975, "fair_value": 44.824103, "relative_strength": -6.508343, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.67419, "energy": 27.973869, "activity_lines": [ 44.001333, 45.012727, 45.085095, 45.092022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.07, "volume": 1976635, "typical_volume": 1260147.4, "trend": 46.071167, "fair_value": 44.61141, "relative_strength": 0.093682, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.31302, "energy": 4.308016, "activity_lines": [ 45.800667, 45.869273, 45.594214, 45.34186 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }