{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4fe1bd02-75b5-4178-bde7-19578dd5d080", "symbol": "DMP", "name": "Dermapharm Holding SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 59.315, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.953, "architecture_energy": 64.567, "architecture_maturity": 10.303, "architecture_confidence": 85.017, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.23, "rotation_up": 16.68, "upward_expansion": 30.15, "deceleration": 48.76, "rotation_down": 73.94, "downward_expansion": 55.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.41, 43.306141, 44.882287, 44.383484 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.599998, "trend_reference": 42.907799, "distance_from_trend": -0.053785, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.68125, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.077459, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.337502, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.115384, "excess_performance": -0.058862, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053785, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065556, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.077459, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18088, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153375, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.217938, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115384, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 107, "relative_activity": 2.947658, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 2.210744, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051513, "annualized_volatility": 0.298144, "from_high_reference": -0.192159, "from_low_reference": 0.266771 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.907799, "fair_value_reference": 37.68125, "structural_low": 36.400002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052265, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079284, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00495, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 32.440029, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.400002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30.95, "trend": 42.731133, "fair_value": 37.613487, "relative_strength": -13.610292, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -24.701297, "energy": 34.79198, "activity_lines": [ 43.604667, 45.026003, 45.733563, 44.626103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.200001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30.95, "trend": 42.829466, "fair_value": 37.650846, "relative_strength": -11.668857, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.404681, "energy": 47.585816, "activity_lines": [ 42.416668, 44.153447, 45.337211, 44.527321 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.599998, "volume": 107, "typical_volume": 36.3, "trend": 42.907799, "fair_value": 37.68125, "relative_strength": -15.337502, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.953341, "energy": 64.56691, "activity_lines": [ 41.41, 43.306141, 44.882287, 44.383484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }