{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4feaa50c-e494-4abb-b13a-7fefcd6a70fb", "symbol": "600152", "name": "Veken Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.699, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.833, "architecture_energy": 72.816, "architecture_maturity": 23.189, "architecture_confidence": 67.345, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.22, "rotation_up": 16.71, "upward_expansion": 26.07, "deceleration": 43.07, "rotation_down": 73.91, "downward_expansion": 67.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.664, 8.390545, 9.963286, 10.187914 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.11, "trend_reference": 10.010667, "distance_from_trend": -0.189864, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.993718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.159612, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.078754, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.071334, "excess_performance": 0.114538, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189864, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066856, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.159612, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.066236, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.060788, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.878511, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071334, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.402417, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 87786252, "relative_activity": 0.34584, "balance": 0.402417, "dry_up": 0.448297, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.165228, "annualized_volatility": 0.786616, "from_high_reference": -0.512034, "from_low_reference": 0.295527 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.010667, "fair_value_reference": 6.993718, "structural_low": 6.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.038844, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.037301, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.317322, "worst_return": -0.103383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.009074, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.000328, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.063946, "worst_return": -0.192412, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.197279, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.091236, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.176044, "worst_return": -0.355014, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009058, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.098004, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059603, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095324, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052464, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038292, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.113602, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.62166, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.194286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.129526, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 8.03, "volume": 58032257, "typical_volume": 89262530.0, "trend": 11.008, "fair_value": 8.497436, "relative_strength": -31.533026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": 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"modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.80443, "energy": 38.847459, "activity_lines": [ 9.582, 10.508545, 11.308667, 10.825398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.18, "volume": 96868600, "typical_volume": 282873449.25, "trend": 9.963667, "fair_value": 7.011987, "relative_strength": -12.708046, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.447146, "energy": 64.8866, "activity_lines": [ 8.657333, 9.724364, 10.927857, 10.646968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.21, "volume": 156320299, "typical_volume": 275174097.8, "trend": 9.978, "fair_value": 6.999231, "relative_strength": -13.480732, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.287609, "energy": 70.687098, "activity_lines": [ 7.964, 9.095273, 10.558333, 10.469312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.49, "volume": 114198859, "typical_volume": 268415432.05, "trend": 9.983667, "fair_value": 6.992821, "relative_strength": -10.632774, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.26636, "energy": 74.209013, "activity_lines": [ 7.606, 8.635636, 10.225857, 10.308796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.11, "volume": 87786252, "typical_volume": 253834870.5, "trend": 10.010667, "fair_value": 6.993718, "relative_strength": -6.078754, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.833084, "energy": 72.816247, "activity_lines": [ 7.664, 8.390545, 9.963286, 10.187914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }