{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4feae677-600d-4a6a-b22b-90119200fc97", "symbol": "OUST", "name": "Ouster, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.124, "architecture_energy": 20.426, "architecture_maturity": 67.005, "architecture_confidence": 95.843, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.65, "rotation_up": 28.58, "upward_expansion": 56.54, "deceleration": 87.93, "rotation_down": 27.7, "downward_expansion": 17.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.501333, 40.957091, 38.876381, 34.88228 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 43.4, "trend_reference": 30.139, "distance_from_trend": 0.439995, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.051987, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.703715, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 32.681838, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.234809, "excess_performance": 1.047356, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.439995, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.247785, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.703715, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.782533, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.326818, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.443485, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.234809, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.828187, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15610812, "relative_activity": 0.805206, "balance": 1.828187, "dry_up": 0.877191, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.266114, "annualized_volatility": 0.891719, "from_high_reference": -0.319643, "from_low_reference": 1.646341 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.139, "fair_value_reference": 16.051987, "structural_low": 16.4, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.093041, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.055545, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.420142, "worst_return": -0.320242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.176321, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.217197, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.022137, "worst_return": -0.468278, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.006621, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.059966, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.483157, "worst_return": -0.625378, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.284996, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.229317, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04127, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.124697, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.263278, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.292488, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": 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"relative_strength": 19.524105, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.435194, "energy": 36.239573, "activity_lines": [ 42.563333, 42.490727, 37.142429, 33.009312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.04, "volume": 15831958, "typical_volume": 18865910.15, "trend": 29.1, "fair_value": 15.601603, "relative_strength": 11.47594, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.121196, "energy": 24.157251, "activity_lines": [ 39.326667, 41.113091, 37.337048, 33.353978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.01, "volume": 16275637, "typical_volume": 19026461.45, "trend": 29.621333, "fair_value": 15.816154, "relative_strength": 26.136729, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.137629, "energy": 19.132706, "activity_lines": [ 38.582, 40.654, 37.939429, 33.993333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.4, "volume": 15610812, "typical_volume": 19387344.45, "trend": 30.139, "fair_value": 16.051987, "relative_strength": 32.681838, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.123751, "energy": 20.425811, "activity_lines": [ 39.501333, 40.957091, 38.876381, 34.88228 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }