{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4fee8377-75ba-4754-b361-ba1ca3787c17", "symbol": "ESAC", "name": "Bnp Paribas Easy Icav - Bnp Paribas Easy Msci Acwi Sri S-Series Pab 5% Capped Ucits Etf", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.444, "architecture_energy": 56.49, "architecture_maturity": 69.225, "architecture_confidence": 68.858, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.3, "rotation_up": 50.22, "upward_expansion": 79.5, "deceleration": 69.84, "rotation_down": 28.34, "downward_expansion": 8.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.114667, 14.064473, 13.938714, 13.686232 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.47, "trend_reference": 13.399933, "distance_from_trend": 0.079856, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.029828, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.202844, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.891489, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.114792, "excess_performance": 0.050152, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079856, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039458, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.202844, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02864, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.028915, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066285, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114792, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.865116, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 90, "relative_activity": 0.6004, "balance": 1.865116, "dry_up": 1.739493, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019, "annualized_volatility": 0.14268, "from_high_reference": -0.000276, "from_low_reference": 0.208452 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.399933, "fair_value_reference": 12.029828, "structural_low": 12.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.007504, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.008647, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.054114, "worst_return": -0.082394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.008344, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008768, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.038462, "worst_return": -0.021773, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.113443, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.062913, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.113443, "worst_return": 0.113443, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014073, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01704, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015523, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043226, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007423, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.078563, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-24", "close": 10.532, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-31", "close": 10.326, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-06-07", "close": 10.512, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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14.005455, 13.7668, 13.532327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.9, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 188.75, "trend": 13.305067, "fair_value": 11.991737, "relative_strength": 3.946211, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.482794, "energy": 46.682682, "activity_lines": [ 13.972, 13.9904, 13.811305, 13.573329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.932, "volume": 93, "typical_volume": 145.4, "trend": 13.346933, "fair_value": 12.008609, "relative_strength": 1.898725, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.752507, "energy": 37.907587, "activity_lines": [ 13.9564, 13.978545, 13.852895, 13.613776 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.47, "volume": 90, "typical_volume": 149.9, "trend": 13.399933, "fair_value": 12.029828, "relative_strength": 2.891489, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.443918, "energy": 56.489612, "activity_lines": [ 14.114667, 14.064473, 13.938714, 13.686232 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }