{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ff36c03-658f-4d5c-8207-195ff67579bc", "symbol": "YAL", "name": "Yancoal Australia Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.486, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.078, "architecture_energy": 45.882, "architecture_maturity": 22.706, "architecture_confidence": 92.61, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.76, "rotation_up": 24.76, "upward_expansion": 11.59, "deceleration": 51.5, "rotation_down": 53.35, "downward_expansion": 78.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.646, 5.688182, 6.103143, 6.358987 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.62, "trend_reference": 6.447789, "distance_from_trend": -0.128383, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.407603, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.039277, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.638284, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.044702, "excess_performance": -0.108408, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128383, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0339, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.039277, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.236966, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106383, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238348, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.044702, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.84795, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8218985, "relative_activity": 0.612954, "balance": 0.84795, "dry_up": 1.001754, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097659, "annualized_volatility": 0.572673, "from_high_reference": -0.379691, "from_low_reference": 0.200143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.447789, "fair_value_reference": 5.407603, "structural_low": 5.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.061495, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.046718, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.169261, "worst_return": -0.068834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.479472, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.476904, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.720216, "worst_return": 0.112811, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.166125, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.137699, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.374407, "worst_return": 0.046342, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003795, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003604, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114841, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.149798, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034602, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034596, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.331317, "energy": 68.680834, "activity_lines": [ 5.637333, 6.028545, 6.530177, 6.550515 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.36, "volume": 15145353, "typical_volume": 18842531.85, "trend": 6.370585, "fair_value": 5.373723, "relative_strength": -10.873786, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.232817, "energy": 71.465886, "activity_lines": [ 5.486, 5.862545, 6.391123, 6.486243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.05, "volume": 17957990, "typical_volume": 18423611.95, "trend": 6.410256, "fair_value": 5.38681, "relative_strength": 0.992246, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.23796, "energy": 57.628307, "activity_lines": [ 5.644, 5.845636, 6.319711, 6.46556 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.57, "volume": 12406992, "typical_volume": 16591725.35, "trend": 6.431632, "fair_value": 5.397323, "relative_strength": -8.935905, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.945895, "energy": 56.97681, "activity_lines": [ 5.638, 5.753455, 6.203429, 6.41135 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.62, "volume": 8218985, "typical_volume": 13408812.1, "trend": 6.447789, "fair_value": 5.407603, "relative_strength": -10.638284, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.077748, "energy": 45.88155, "activity_lines": [ 5.646, 5.688182, 6.103143, 6.358987 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }