{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ff9af55-c6a1-46d6-a795-e36f19294d6c", "symbol": "GARO", "name": "Garo Aktiebolag (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.201, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.549, "architecture_energy": 30.026, "architecture_maturity": 29.341, "architecture_confidence": 83.239, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.11, "rotation_up": 20.0, "upward_expansion": 2.5, "deceleration": 58.0, "rotation_down": 51.93, "downward_expansion": 78.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.518667, 11.545091, 11.835333, 12.01286 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.0, "trend_reference": 12.664, "distance_from_trend": -0.052432, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.301444, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.48501, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.622585, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.250936, "excess_performance": -0.312431, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052432, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110216, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.48501, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083184, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.286226, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083972, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.250936, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.593763, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129410, "relative_activity": 0.507067, "balance": 5.593763, "dry_up": 0.384295, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09, "annualized_volatility": 0.380327, "from_high_reference": -0.474836, "from_low_reference": 0.13852 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.664, "fair_value_reference": 23.301444, "structural_low": 10.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 48, "median_return": -0.038227, "positive_rate": 0.354167, "directional_follow_through": 0.645833, "median_excess_return": -0.035191, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.348136, "worst_return": -0.260218, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.069771, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.135339, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.188555, "worst_return": -0.424657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.291011, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.329184, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": -0.051111, "worst_return": -0.397336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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13.502667, "fair_value": 24.745264, "relative_strength": -36.310172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.2437, "energy": 44.363295, "activity_lines": [ 11.753333, 12.184364, 12.052762, 12.582151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.36, "volume": 100683, "typical_volume": 280608.3, "trend": 13.37, "fair_value": 24.462332, "relative_strength": -33.980325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.460128, "energy": 50.709791, "activity_lines": [ 11.526667, 12.025818, 11.981333, 12.443914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.32, "volume": 75564, "typical_volume": 274982.85, "trend": 13.243333, "fair_value": 24.170612, "relative_strength": -32.534155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.417674, "energy": 56.144462, "activity_lines": [ 11.386667, 11.859273, 11.921905, 12.311656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.22, "volume": 75566, "typical_volume": 270273.6, "trend": 13.050667, "fair_value": 23.872249, "relative_strength": -33.147728, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.972257, "energy": 54.98058, "activity_lines": [ 11.304, 11.684, 11.86219, 12.181118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.28, "volume": 111768, "typical_volume": 263720.25, "trend": 12.837333, "fair_value": 23.576482, "relative_strength": -32.638788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.097675, "energy": 39.134499, "activity_lines": [ 11.289333, 11.536364, 11.813429, 12.066882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.0, "volume": 129410, "typical_volume": 255212.65, "trend": 12.664, "fair_value": 23.301444, "relative_strength": -28.622585, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.548914, "energy": 30.026194, "activity_lines": [ 11.518667, 11.545091, 11.835333, 12.01286 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }