{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4fff0d53-7352-44c4-a9a9-c55f277f3ecd", "symbol": "6781", "name": "Advanced Energy Solution Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.487, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.263, "architecture_energy": 20.173, "architecture_maturity": 30.09, "architecture_confidence": 67.623, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.63, "rotation_up": 19.43, "upward_expansion": 13.21, "deceleration": 47.28, "rotation_down": 45.13, "downward_expansion": 67.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 1057.733333, 1067.160946, 1090.656946, 1087.632528 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1120.0, "trend_reference": 1091.485067, "distance_from_trend": 0.026125, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 873.195757, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.282645, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.91928, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.021227, "excess_performance": -0.420145, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026125, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06002, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.282645, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079585, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.319193, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006093, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.021227, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.879069, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5600715, "relative_activity": 0.915373, "balance": 0.879069, "dry_up": 0.681701, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133443, "annualized_volatility": 0.601633, "from_high_reference": -0.267737, "from_low_reference": 0.336516 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1091.485067, "fair_value_reference": 873.195757, "structural_low": 838.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.003349, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.019263, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.147838, "worst_return": -0.198047, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.030613, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.101367, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.376763, "worst_return": -0.126421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.030218, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.111026, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.382204, "worst_return": -0.155055, "sufficient": 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"activity_lines": [ 1027.066667, 1060.525923, 1087.229822, 1086.070658 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 1120.0, "volume": 5600715, "typical_volume": 6118508.95, "trend": 1091.485067, "fair_value": 873.195757, "relative_strength": -31.91928, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.263098, "energy": 20.172718, "activity_lines": [ 1057.733333, 1067.160946, 1090.656946, 1087.632528 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }