{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50008fd8-cca1-41f3-abe9-58aba378114c", "symbol": "300774", "name": "BGT Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.427, "architecture_energy": 64.548, "architecture_maturity": 59.672, "architecture_confidence": 91.234, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 25.52, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 56.19, "rotation_down": 58.17, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.995333, 10.455636, 12.130157, 14.029412 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.97, "trend_reference": 16.904416, "distance_from_trend": -0.351057, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.028188, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.005276, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.101409, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.525709, "excess_performance": -0.533109, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.351057, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126022, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.005276, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.621333, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.331014, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.310939, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.525709, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.345603, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44023373, "relative_activity": 1.03916, "balance": 1.345603, "dry_up": 1.083606, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153113, "annualized_volatility": 0.778909, "from_high_reference": -0.619483, "from_low_reference": 0.352651 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.904416, "fair_value_reference": 11.028188, "structural_low": 8.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.01633, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.015453, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.347457, "worst_return": -0.171959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.062925, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.009118, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.355938, "worst_return": -0.185097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.072118, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.085393, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.800355, "worst_return": -0.246948, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -41.869887, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.362354, "energy": 85.590046, "activity_lines": [ 9.749333, 10.913397, 12.885858, 14.932579 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.72, "volume": 38757427, "typical_volume": 43137704.9, "trend": 17.17097, "fair_value": 11.029948, "relative_strength": -37.594205, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.746048, "energy": 77.644349, "activity_lines": [ 9.627333, 10.519036, 12.418981, 14.429474 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.97, "volume": 44023373, "typical_volume": 42364398.5, "trend": 16.904416, "fair_value": 11.028188, "relative_strength": -33.101409, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.426566, "energy": 64.548058, "activity_lines": [ 9.995333, 10.455636, 12.130157, 14.029412 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }