{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "5002c68e-a29a-403d-a6d0-0040a88f124b",
    "symbol": "STOK",
    "name": "Stoke Therapeutics Inc",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -37.121,
    "architecture_energy": 27.42,
    "architecture_maturity": 13.772,
    "architecture_confidence": 86.543,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 44.51,
        "rotation_up": 22.75,
        "upward_expansion": 8.3,
        "deceleration": 41.08,
        "rotation_down": 45.79,
        "downward_expansion": 74.64
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        30.424667,
        30.673091,
        31.039905,
        31.629957
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 32.71,
    "trend_reference": 32.001333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.022145,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 16.501282,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.98227,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -4.583338,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.009568,
    "excess_performance": -0.177886,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.022145,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.006627,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.98227,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.240817,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.045833,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.147281,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.009568,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.336859,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 6664542,
      "relative_activity": 1.876629,
      "balance": 1.336859,
      "dry_up": 1.080166,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.092752,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.378344,
      "from_high_reference": -0.186723,
      "from_low_reference": 1.54321
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 32.001333,
      "fair_value_reference": 16.501282,
      "structural_low": 27.235,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": -0.065548,
        "positive_rate": 0.307692,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.307692,
        "median_excess_return": -0.049122,
        "regime_survival": 0.384615,
        "best_return": 0.237179,
        "worst_return": -0.253264,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.207986,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.162764,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 1.56654,
        "worst_return": -0.467615,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.205722,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.222306,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 2.223577,
        "worst_return": -0.432985,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 1.203658,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.970991,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 1.505529,
        "worst_return": -0.667102,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "end": "2024-02-23",
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        "return": 0.129278,
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      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "end": "2024-07-12",
        "tenure": "Established",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "end": "2025-05-16",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "return": 0.028621,
        "active": false
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      {
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        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "direction": 32.641652,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "trend": 31.859667,
        "fair_value": 14.915641,
        "relative_strength": -0.021655,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 3474227.15,
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        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -21.719421,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 3226467.25,
        "trend": 32.029,
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        "relative_strength": -2.675961,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 38.097507,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 3208114.9,
        "trend": 32.139333,
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        "relative_strength": -6.273414,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -30.984466,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "stage": 3,
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        "gate": "mixed",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 3457134.05,
        "trend": 32.231,
        "fair_value": 15.643141,
        "relative_strength": 0.654549,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -39.680992,
        "energy": 22.471982,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 32.7,
        "volume": 6225163,
        "typical_volume": 3643919.0,
        "trend": 32.292,
        "fair_value": 15.788013,
        "relative_strength": 0.893356,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -28.831067,
        "energy": 13.707791,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.61,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 3721104,
        "typical_volume": 3675515.7,
        "trend": 32.258333,
        "fair_value": 15.924103,
        "relative_strength": -5.769768,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -30.315247,
        "energy": 16.852506,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.701333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 29.05,
        "volume": 2702185,
        "typical_volume": 3636209.45,
        "trend": 32.161333,
        "fair_value": 16.033462,
        "relative_strength": -9.666647,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -47.264427,
        "energy": 20.710659,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.924667,
          30.820909,
          31.529857,
          31.976495
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 29.3,
        "volume": 2678917,
        "typical_volume": 3534769.15,
        "trend": 32.074,
        "fair_value": 16.180705,
        "relative_strength": -8.159935,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -54.316495,
        "energy": 33.406462,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.282667,
          30.579273,
          31.245762,
          31.791892
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 28.86,
        "volume": 3298494,
        "typical_volume": 3466364.1,
        "trend": 32.006,
        "fair_value": 16.326474,
        "relative_strength": -10.716729,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -57.773674,
        "energy": 49.56714,
        "activity_lines": [
          29.607333,
          30.271818,
          30.94919,
          31.584538
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 32.71,
        "volume": 6664542,
        "typical_volume": 3551337.25,
        "trend": 32.001333,
        "fair_value": 16.501282,
        "relative_strength": -4.583338,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -37.120714,
        "energy": 27.419714,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.424667,
          30.673091,
          31.039905,
          31.629957
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}