{ "ticker": { "uuid": "500557b3-f2b6-4ae7-bbb2-f39042f18f14", "symbol": "8071", "name": "ABICO NetCom Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 50.244, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.686, "architecture_energy": 23.766, "architecture_maturity": 74.134, "architecture_confidence": 78.687, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.68, "rotation_up": 18.25, "upward_expansion": 52.2, "deceleration": 93.95, "rotation_down": 38.18, "downward_expansion": 20.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.243334, 25.203636, 24.089524, 22.404839 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 24.4, "trend_reference": 20.518333, "distance_from_trend": 0.18918, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.493133, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.319409, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.444486, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.418605, "excess_performance": -0.022767, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.18918, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.161415, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.319409, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.241809, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094445, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.185804, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.418605, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.585388, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6311233, "relative_activity": 0.48231, "balance": 2.585388, "dry_up": 0.437275, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.195776, "annualized_volatility": 0.57036, "from_high_reference": -0.304843, "from_low_reference": 0.6 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.518333, "fair_value_reference": 18.493133, "structural_low": 15.25, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.01173, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.047466, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.555985, "worst_return": -0.105386, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.208211, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.268937, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": 0.109589, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.014789, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.05635, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.301158, "worst_return": -0.084475, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.070181, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.076398, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.281916, "worst_return": -0.141553, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.165375, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123288, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005236, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.246154, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067285, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.18287, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013889, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024193, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06599, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.041899, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.15896, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002347, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144898, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053996, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 15.11271, "volume": 768000, "typical_volume": 2343900.0, "trend": 14.66062, "fair_value": 13.514504, "relative_strength": -7.308872, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.285639, 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30.299999, "volume": 28169853, "typical_volume": 11643365.05, "trend": 19.615, "fair_value": 18.251503, "relative_strength": 9.673953, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.767972, "energy": 84.988864, "activity_lines": [ 30.303333, 27.161818, 23.050952, 21.328064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.0, "volume": 11451486, "typical_volume": 12155155.1, "trend": 19.85, "fair_value": 18.311157, "relative_strength": -3.306908, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.250557, "energy": 58.171434, "activity_lines": [ 28.863333, 27.253636, 23.479524, 21.675484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.1, "volume": 5412318, "typical_volume": 12332351.0, "trend": 20.025, "fair_value": 18.3577, "relative_strength": -12.098643, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.917427, "energy": 40.242332, "activity_lines": [ 26.756666, 26.85, 23.689762, 21.885161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.950001, "volume": 5255820, "typical_volume": 12548394.9, "trend": 20.128333, "fair_value": 18.38953, "relative_strength": -18.612039, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.723027, "energy": 21.716768, "activity_lines": [ 24.353333, 25.980909, 23.667619, 21.944839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.15, "volume": 5908322, "typical_volume": 12804609.35, "trend": 20.291667, "fair_value": 18.435151, "relative_strength": -11.630422, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.00221, "energy": 26.766213, "activity_lines": [ 23.276667, 25.495455, 23.834762, 22.139785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 24.4, "volume": 6311233, "typical_volume": 13085417.05, "trend": 20.518333, "fair_value": 18.493133, "relative_strength": -9.444486, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.686223, "energy": 23.766145, "activity_lines": [ 23.243334, 25.203636, 24.089524, 22.404839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }