{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5007318c-043c-4c13-9eb5-43d802a52fc4", "symbol": "EX31", "name": "iShares (DE) I - iShares STOXX Europe 600 Health Care UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.071, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 9.038, "architecture_energy": 8.001, "architecture_maturity": 21.888, "architecture_confidence": 40.862, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.09, "rotation_up": 29.46, "upward_expansion": 29.87, "deceleration": 63.52, "rotation_down": 34.75, "downward_expansion": 25.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 114.492, 114.777819, 113.674953, 113.598581 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 115.059998, "trend_reference": 114.312666, "distance_from_trend": 0.006538, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 111.631346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030714, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.41254, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.026236, "excess_performance": -0.200482, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006538, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006179, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.030714, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054145, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164125, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000301, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026236, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.953307, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1244, "relative_activity": 6.538765, "balance": 1.953307, "dry_up": 2.647832, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029938, "annualized_volatility": 0.191917, "from_high_reference": -0.065009, "from_low_reference": 0.161635 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 114.312666, "fair_value_reference": 111.631346, "structural_low": 105.419998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.031544, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.040646, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.048804, "worst_return": -0.080872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.025105, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.058076, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.066794, "worst_return": -0.108559, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002128, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.122726, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.089667, "worst_return": -0.090058, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.009489, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.081863, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.114566, "worst_return": -0.008465, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001935, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.039281, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040768, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045978, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.07163, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048038, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.025931, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009685, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": 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113.446666, "fair_value": 111.0425, "relative_strength": -13.520877, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.394428, "energy": 37.78055, "activity_lines": [ 110.518665, 111.135999, 112.797999, 113.49987 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 112.040001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 504.75, "trend": 113.610666, "fair_value": 111.067628, "relative_strength": -16.167902, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.687382, "energy": 29.641205, "activity_lines": [ 111.150666, 111.304726, 112.553142, 113.409117 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 112.120003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 491.55, "trend": 113.808666, "fair_value": 111.099038, "relative_strength": -14.763438, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.230922, "energy": 17.970659, "activity_lines": [ 111.670668, 111.403273, 112.347142, 113.312946 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 112.860001, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 452.2, "trend": 113.865333, "fair_value": 111.129423, "relative_strength": -16.071679, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.274375, "energy": 20.704593, "activity_lines": [ 112.290668, 111.599637, 112.245047, 113.251741 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 110.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 439.0, "trend": 113.834666, "fair_value": 111.16032, "relative_strength": -20.705541, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.140211, "energy": 19.694582, "activity_lines": [ 111.828001, 111.380364, 111.944285, 113.034623 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 115.139999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 375.8, "trend": 113.916666, "fair_value": 111.217628, "relative_strength": -15.38939, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.402518, "energy": 11.193199, "activity_lines": [ 112.837334, 112.066182, 112.116857, 113.118838 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 120.300003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 339.65, "trend": 114.182666, "fair_value": 111.332756, "relative_strength": -13.322253, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.493123, "energy": 46.385211, "activity_lines": [ 115.426668, 113.695637, 112.795238, 113.530666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 116.300003, "volume": 257, "typical_volume": 306.9, "trend": 114.343333, "fair_value": 111.41609, "relative_strength": -14.752831, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.217456, "energy": 45.38805, "activity_lines": [ 116.132002, 114.409819, 113.096476, 113.667269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 112.540001, "volume": 257, "typical_volume": 319.75, "trend": 114.375333, "fair_value": 111.455577, "relative_strength": -15.576591, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.209001, "energy": 30.510583, "activity_lines": [ 115.305335, 114.324365, 113.066191, 113.550925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 114.900002, "volume": 257, "typical_volume": 260.4, "trend": 114.415333, "fair_value": 111.513654, "relative_strength": -14.62968, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.51754, "energy": 35.404377, "activity_lines": [ 115.286669, 114.593092, 113.29781, 113.584774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 114.0, "volume": 257, "typical_volume": 233.65, "trend": 114.430666, "fair_value": 111.580064, "relative_strength": -14.971956, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.386086, "energy": 8.432702, "activity_lines": [ 114.674668, 114.597819, 113.43981, 113.557979 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 115.059998, "volume": 1244, "typical_volume": 190.25, "trend": 114.312666, "fair_value": 111.631346, "relative_strength": -16.41254, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.038031, "energy": 8.001491, "activity_lines": [ 114.492, 114.777819, 113.674953, 113.598581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }