{ "ticker": { "uuid": "500a8397-23a9-43cc-a5a8-2ee1d5e3fdc1", "symbol": "688512", "name": "Smarter Microelectronics (Guangzhou) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -4.059, "architecture_energy": 17.458, "architecture_maturity": 24.899, "architecture_confidence": 48.93, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.44, "rotation_up": 23.22, "upward_expansion": 21.15, "deceleration": 61.44, "rotation_down": 53.71, "downward_expansion": 39.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.646667, 13.237818, 13.562952, 13.319054 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 14.11, "trend_reference": 12.956333, "distance_from_trend": 0.089043, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.222885, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.154392, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.044301, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.171927, "excess_performance": 0.215131, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089043, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065926, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.154392, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115866, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.140443, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100142, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.171927, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.670414, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85358967, "relative_activity": 1.123383, "balance": 1.670414, "dry_up": 1.172767, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.164368, "annualized_volatility": 0.69091, "from_high_reference": -0.211291, "from_low_reference": 0.390148 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.956333, "fair_value_reference": 12.222885, "structural_low": 10.2, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.077487, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.045843, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.200311, "worst_return": -0.048804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.022701, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.026117, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.209901, "worst_return": -0.112172, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.069659, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.03708, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.214712, "worst_return": -0.075394, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.183897, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.02077, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.183897, "worst_return": 0.183897, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.131514, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.168317, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.078529, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138813, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", 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12.441538, "relative_strength": 22.311051, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.321044, "energy": 40.347591, "activity_lines": [ 14.802667, 14.590546, 13.967191, 13.461161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.53, "volume": 119419834, "typical_volume": 74280081.25, "trend": 12.833667, "fair_value": 12.389295, "relative_strength": 5.978449, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.015572, "energy": 15.425923, "activity_lines": [ 14.121333, 14.224364, 13.886857, 13.444989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.16, "volume": 89865626, "typical_volume": 75837305.3, "trend": 12.850333, "fair_value": 12.328526, "relative_strength": -6.749127, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.307531, "energy": 9.306416, "activity_lines": [ 13.034667, 13.621273, 13.677524, 13.337011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.32, "volume": 61801014, "typical_volume": 74789674.35, "trend": 12.858, "fair_value": 12.263269, "relative_strength": -5.727044, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.19071, "energy": 25.440313, "activity_lines": [ 12.272667, 13.125455, 13.485333, 13.23828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.11, "volume": 85358967, "typical_volume": 75983874.8, "trend": 12.956333, "fair_value": 12.222885, "relative_strength": 14.044301, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.059495, "energy": 17.457765, "activity_lines": [ 12.646667, 13.237818, 13.562952, 13.319054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }