{ "ticker": { "uuid": "500ca91f-8605-451b-920e-2d89f5db510d", "symbol": "MAGR", "name": "iShares Growth Portfolio UCITS ETF EUR (Acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.727, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.868, "architecture_energy": 48.258, "architecture_maturity": 62.62, "architecture_confidence": 69.328, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.05, "rotation_up": 43.74, "upward_expansion": 65.31, "deceleration": 85.45, "rotation_down": 27.82, "downward_expansion": 24.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.437667, 8.447836, 8.359381, 8.195305 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.567, "trend_reference": 8.004633, "distance_from_trend": 0.070255, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.93972, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.234488, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.795299, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.116949, "excess_performance": -0.053943, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070255, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042827, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.234488, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02295, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047953, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032849, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.116949, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.539129, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36798, "relative_activity": 0.978885, "balance": 0.539129, "dry_up": 0.96057, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017276, "annualized_volatility": 0.115591, "from_high_reference": -0.003721, "from_low_reference": 0.216731 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.004633, "fair_value_reference": 6.93972, "structural_low": 7.216, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.074563, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.039254, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.074563, "worst_return": 0.074563, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.111779, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.006651, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.111779, "worst_return": 0.111779, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025228, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04069, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.046915, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034735, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.047056, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-11-17", "close": 5.564, "volume": 5934, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-11-24", "close": 5.617, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-01", "close": 5.679, "volume": 2711, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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"trend": 7.949533, "fair_value": 6.918376, "relative_strength": -3.633427, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.751291, "energy": 55.040383, "activity_lines": [ 8.431867, 8.443691, 8.294567, 8.133161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.322, "volume": 52256, "typical_volume": 39084.05, "trend": 7.976233, "fair_value": 6.928261, "relative_strength": -4.891412, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.159914, "energy": 42.440371, "activity_lines": [ 8.389067, 8.423855, 8.317257, 8.157191 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.567, "volume": 36798, "typical_volume": 37591.75, "trend": 8.004633, "fair_value": 6.93972, "relative_strength": -4.795299, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.867809, "energy": 48.257922, "activity_lines": [ 8.437667, 8.447836, 8.359381, 8.195305 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }