{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50120308-205e-4609-8928-db2163938a27", "symbol": "600688", "name": "Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 80.629, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.389, "architecture_energy": 39.499, "architecture_maturity": 7.211, "architecture_confidence": 82.526, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.27, "rotation_up": 14.72, "upward_expansion": 7.09, "deceleration": 41.96, "rotation_down": 54.81, "downward_expansion": 80.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.821333, 2.866182, 2.907905, 2.945484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.87, "trend_reference": 2.99, "distance_from_trend": -0.040134, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.884695, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.005094, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.208224, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.119632, "excess_performance": -0.076428, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040134, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023388, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.005094, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037677, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.002082, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047921, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.119632, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.154194, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 324563018, "relative_activity": 0.986199, "balance": 1.154194, "dry_up": 1.360764, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103189, "annualized_volatility": 0.558329, "from_high_reference": -0.262211, "from_low_reference": 0.099617 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.99, "fair_value_reference": 2.884695, "structural_low": 2.68, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.008839, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.005915, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.434782, "worst_return": -0.085044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.031652, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.026757, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.47205, "worst_return": -0.061625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.042857, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.034778, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.251553, "worst_return": -0.105888, 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"close": 2.84, "volume": 350009969, "typical_volume": 335646893.25, "trend": 2.987, "fair_value": 2.886035, "relative_strength": 1.33315, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.757719, "energy": 47.672258, "activity_lines": [ 2.807333, 2.876545, 2.913286, 2.953032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.87, "volume": 324563018, "typical_volume": 329104849.0, "trend": 2.99, "fair_value": 2.884695, "relative_strength": -0.208224, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.389106, "energy": 39.499405, "activity_lines": [ 2.821333, 2.866182, 2.907905, 2.945484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }