{ "ticker": { "uuid": "501b79ef-72c8-41f3-a6b5-a1de00fb350a", "symbol": "IMB", "name": "Imperial Brands PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.478, "architecture_energy": 13.232, "architecture_maturity": 22.228, "architecture_confidence": 76.626, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.66, "rotation_up": 24.93, "upward_expansion": 22.97, "deceleration": 50.82, "rotation_down": 27.46, "downward_expansion": 49.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 2811.8, 2798.509091, 2794.970125, 2855.221273 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2791.0, "trend_reference": 2942.187069, "distance_from_trend": -0.051386, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2502.678702, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.115205, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.992697, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.164397, "excess_performance": -0.215633, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051386, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040518, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.115205, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01995, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149927, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00161, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.164397, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.231212, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14425215, "relative_activity": 1.341739, "balance": 1.231212, "dry_up": 1.676045, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059731, "annualized_volatility": 0.223413, "from_high_reference": -0.231355, "from_low_reference": 0.056797 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2942.187069, "fair_value_reference": 2502.678702, "structural_low": 2641.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.002826, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.001373, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.109598, "worst_return": -0.09235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.024371, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.022634, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.138246, "worst_return": -0.120171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.065214, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.017824, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.206573, "worst_return": -0.098729, "sufficient": false 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017399, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064723, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052195, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002583, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.574136, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072866, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037293, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09235, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019649, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012035, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1753.28772, "volume": 10171899, "typical_volume": 10397197.5, "trend": 1866.41237, "fair_value": 1693.00719, "relative_strength": -5.994622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.337169, "energy": 15.006666, "activity_lines": [ 2816.333333, 2796.309091, 2799.63539, 2865.446661 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2791.0, "volume": 14425215, "typical_volume": 10751130.0, "trend": 2942.187069, "fair_value": 2502.678702, "relative_strength": -14.992697, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.478133, "energy": 13.231962, "activity_lines": [ 2811.8, 2798.509091, 2794.970125, 2855.221273 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }