{ "ticker": { "uuid": "501d195e-2511-4b0a-a286-9785734f3d4d", "symbol": "600546", "name": "Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.268, "architecture_energy": 21.867, "architecture_maturity": 36.913, "architecture_confidence": 72.141, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.9, "rotation_up": 47.78, "upward_expansion": 59.42, "deceleration": 66.87, "rotation_down": 14.43, "downward_expansion": 14.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.505909, 12.26408, 12.525002, 12.399046 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.02, "trend_reference": 12.086253, "distance_from_trend": 0.077257, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.189314, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.068149, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.273963, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.154255, "excess_performance": 0.197459, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077257, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049063, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.068149, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032761, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.15274, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024856, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.154255, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.297479, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 167830873, "relative_activity": 1.437753, "balance": 2.297479, "dry_up": 1.193227, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0869, "annualized_volatility": 0.420043, "from_high_reference": -0.105155, "from_low_reference": 0.369085 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.086253, "fair_value_reference": 12.189314, "structural_low": 10.54, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.098361, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.08322, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.201098, "worst_return": -0.099887, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.062465, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.119032, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.547149, "worst_return": 0.018072, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.111066, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.105278, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.601589, "worst_return": -0.059813, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"energy": 27.554142, "activity_lines": [ 11.700613, 12.182131, 12.459206, 12.256085 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.3, "volume": 155471717, "typical_volume": 129581942.8, "trend": 11.905587, "fair_value": 12.201563, "relative_strength": 13.282653, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.247978, "energy": 13.115904, "activity_lines": [ 11.905887, 12.126538, 12.450027, 12.285767 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.63, "volume": 123629398, "typical_volume": 117563672.95, "trend": 11.988587, "fair_value": 12.192537, "relative_strength": 15.432175, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.160197, "energy": 13.998168, "activity_lines": [ 12.198742, 12.155673, 12.469515, 12.332503 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.02, "volume": 167830873, "typical_volume": 116731357.55, "trend": 12.086253, "fair_value": 12.189314, "relative_strength": 15.273963, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.267901, "energy": 21.866789, "activity_lines": [ 12.505909, 12.26408, 12.525002, 12.399046 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }