{ "ticker": { "uuid": "502c435e-c54f-4f45-8dbd-f8449b74b1df", "symbol": "KGX", "name": "KION GROUP AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.745, "architecture_energy": 36.67, "architecture_maturity": 70.162, "architecture_confidence": 88.778, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.49, "rotation_up": 25.38, "upward_expansion": 4.65, "deceleration": 57.39, "rotation_down": 43.61, "downward_expansion": 75.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.304666, 40.484, 41.416554, 43.226444 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.889999, "trend_reference": 47.154876, "distance_from_trend": -0.132857, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.698742, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.042361, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.62336, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.318378, "excess_performance": -0.492625, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.132857, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142726, "read": "Falling" 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37.119999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.012381, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.024478, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.240206, "worst_return": -0.430417, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.002608, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018646, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.377721, "worst_return": -0.372538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.018829, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.114749, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.37484, "worst_return": -0.451802, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-17", "close": 41.040001, "volume": 1756, "typical_volume": 420.65, "trend": 49.866094, "fair_value": 42.620491, "relative_strength": -36.626982, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.645899, "energy": 35.524106, "activity_lines": [ 41.176001, 41.000259, 42.168797, 44.941584 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.580002, "volume": 1446, "typical_volume": 487.95, "trend": 49.015376, "fair_value": 42.645461, "relative_strength": -37.618767, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.283898, "energy": 30.668645, "activity_lines": [ 41.002668, 40.844758, 41.923964, 44.342481 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.849998, "volume": 2752, "typical_volume": 625.55, "trend": 48.023193, "fair_value": 42.661537, "relative_strength": -39.655075, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.651644, "energy": 41.842554, "activity_lines": [ 40.337334, 40.434, 41.55844, 43.68665 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.889999, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 615.15, "trend": 47.154876, "fair_value": 42.698742, "relative_strength": -37.62336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.74464, "energy": 36.670042, "activity_lines": [ 40.304666, 40.484, 41.416554, 43.226444 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }