{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50370555-b96e-4044-ad61-54451528d979", "symbol": "603050", "name": "Shijiazhuang Kelin Electric Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.972, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.721, "architecture_energy": 56.927, "architecture_maturity": 11.636, "architecture_confidence": 82.722, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.29, "rotation_up": 12.0, "upward_expansion": 11.71, "deceleration": 39.22, "rotation_down": 66.98, "downward_expansion": 87.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.076, 18.639273, 19.816037, 20.240306 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.030001, "trend_reference": 20.49915, "distance_from_trend": -0.120451, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.385214, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.171904, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.462602, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.138743, "excess_performance": -0.095539, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.120451, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020259, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.171904, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.503647, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054626, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.266835, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138743, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.191421, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14494676, "relative_activity": 0.519794, "balance": 1.191421, "dry_up": 0.656083, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142037, "annualized_volatility": 0.531816, "from_high_reference": -0.34149, "from_low_reference": 0.175455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.49915, "fair_value_reference": 15.385214, "structural_low": 16.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.004209, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.003245, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.171138, "worst_return": -0.143434, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.023919, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.02559, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.413551, "worst_return": -0.121885, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.170005, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.17405, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.24126, "worst_return": 0.098749, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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20.456904, "fair_value": 15.153066, "relative_strength": -0.596702, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.524863, "energy": 29.510601, "activity_lines": [ 19.690666, 20.517621, 20.925935, 20.891432 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.719999, "volume": 15531406, "typical_volume": 32436165.3, "trend": 20.450292, "fair_value": 15.210334, "relative_strength": -2.735901, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.289967, "energy": 44.041569, "activity_lines": [ 18.995333, 19.854, 20.594569, 20.714857 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.790001, "volume": 28485951, "typical_volume": 32014783.2, "trend": 20.471148, "fair_value": 15.267665, "relative_strength": -3.608711, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.411333, "energy": 39.872619, "activity_lines": [ 18.524, 19.319818, 20.288531, 20.543226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.24, "volume": 14668656, "typical_volume": 29971435.75, "trend": 20.494106, "fair_value": 15.325889, "relative_strength": -1.669734, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.755569, "energy": 53.0871, "activity_lines": [ 18.306, 18.955636, 20.052467, 20.399281 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.030001, "volume": 14494676, "typical_volume": 27885437.9, "trend": 20.49915, "fair_value": 15.385214, "relative_strength": -5.462602, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.72116, "energy": 56.927153, "activity_lines": [ 18.076, 18.639273, 19.816037, 20.240306 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }