{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50384c6e-199d-4d01-917e-701b442a62e3", "symbol": "DWSH", "name": "ADVISORSHARES DORSEY WRIGHT SHORT ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.522, "architecture_energy": 74.805, "architecture_maturity": 11.243, "architecture_confidence": 76.662, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.89, "rotation_up": 9.98, "upward_expansion": 15.62, "deceleration": 37.48, "rotation_down": 76.78, "downward_expansion": 91.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.821727, 5.981696, 6.168945, 6.243891 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.555, "trend_reference": 6.280623, "distance_from_trend": -0.115534, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.626806, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.161738, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.708076, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.087909, "excess_performance": -0.275362, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.115534, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01957, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.161738, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120337, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237081, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049946, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.087909, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.629381, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78346, "relative_activity": 0.319588, "balance": 1.629381, "dry_up": 0.606301, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063322, "annualized_volatility": 0.222456, "from_high_reference": -0.212334, "from_low_reference": 0.004375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.280623, "fair_value_reference": 6.626806, "structural_low": 5.5308, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.02139, "positive_rate": 0.722222, "directional_follow_through": 0.277778, "median_excess_return": 0.015279, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.110844, "worst_return": -0.036048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.018994, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.018445, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.212608, "worst_return": -0.042271, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.011868, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.07959, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.011917, "worst_return": -0.039903, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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6.343198, "fair_value": 6.642051, "relative_strength": -18.114578, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.138594, "energy": 34.631565, "activity_lines": [ 6.19874, 6.295122, 6.372519, 6.364268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.99, "volume": 118474, "typical_volume": 269789.6, "trend": 6.32971, "fair_value": 6.638953, "relative_strength": -16.132216, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.116074, "energy": 52.412398, "activity_lines": [ 6.10968, 6.226542, 6.332461, 6.341481 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.08, "volume": 224743, "typical_volume": 261559.85, "trend": 6.318377, "fair_value": 6.637109, "relative_strength": -13.107481, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.72611, "energy": 50.743921, "activity_lines": [ 6.072593, 6.182053, 6.301899, 6.325371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.7974, "volume": 172969, "typical_volume": 253307.85, "trend": 6.296957, "fair_value": 6.632837, "relative_strength": -16.97823, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.922925, "energy": 64.061602, "activity_lines": [ 5.971973, 6.09766, 6.245185, 6.291759 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.555, "volume": 78346, "typical_volume": 245147.2, "trend": 6.280623, "fair_value": 6.626806, "relative_strength": -23.708076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.521545, "energy": 74.805403, "activity_lines": [ 5.821727, 5.981696, 6.168945, 6.243891 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }