{ "ticker": { "uuid": "503b73b8-ef00-4b01-af57-db4bce3ce7dd", "symbol": "BIRLAMONEY", "name": "Aditya Birla Money Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.841, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 5.503, "architecture_energy": 14.557, "architecture_maturity": 17.174, "architecture_confidence": 67.515, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.2, "rotation_up": 21.79, "upward_expansion": 44.96, "deceleration": 80.46, "rotation_down": 40.57, "downward_expansion": 34.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 134.584668, 137.501636, 138.229858, 135.553054 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 132.300003, "trend_reference": 132.388667, "distance_from_trend": -0.00067, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 145.272885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.0893, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.078698, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.065561, "excess_performance": 0.10927, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00067, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028905, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.0893, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142265, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080787, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053806, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065561, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.320659, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 165052, "relative_activity": 0.387613, "balance": 0.320659, "dry_up": 1.597764, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083633, "annualized_volatility": 0.435596, "from_high_reference": -0.329753, "from_low_reference": 0.392632 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 132.388667, "fair_value_reference": 145.272885, "structural_low": 95.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.014925, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": -0.015152, "regime_survival": 0.526316, "best_return": 0.112195, "worst_return": -0.069069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.042178, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.001227, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.27762, "worst_return": -0.235097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.015746, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011843, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.904, "worst_return": -0.275553, "sufficient": 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029206, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.241258, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074117, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.063038, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009195, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.060795, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053404, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097364, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008675, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 60.950001, "volume": 223535, "typical_volume": 626728.65, "trend": 54.873333, "fair_value": 55.915385, "relative_strength": 0.115441, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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"fair_value": 143.887436, "relative_strength": -5.895629, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.971728, "energy": 35.942516, "activity_lines": [ 142.628665, 140.940363, 138.579095, 135.53843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 131.990005, "volume": 285404, "typical_volume": 428155.9, "trend": 132.940667, "fair_value": 144.352116, "relative_strength": -6.125418, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.806732, "energy": 16.058621, "activity_lines": [ 138.910668, 139.488364, 138.403524, 135.450753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 134.839996, "volume": 279709, "typical_volume": 432902.15, "trend": 132.613667, "fair_value": 144.820321, "relative_strength": -6.074882, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.152041, "energy": 13.833914, "activity_lines": [ 136.97, 138.693454, 138.482667, 135.57329 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 132.300003, "volume": 165052, "typical_volume": 425816.8, "trend": 132.388667, "fair_value": 145.272885, "relative_strength": -8.078698, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.503471, "energy": 14.557164, "activity_lines": [ 134.584668, 137.501636, 138.229858, 135.553054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }