{ "ticker": { "uuid": "50409234-60de-44df-b6fb-4256ebd04b95", "symbol": "HAC", "name": "Global X Seasonal Rotation ETF Common", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.357, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.533, "architecture_energy": 73.865, "architecture_maturity": 42.397, "architecture_confidence": 81.075, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.63, "rotation_up": 66.01, "upward_expansion": 92.56, "deceleration": 47.1, "rotation_down": 25.92, "downward_expansion": 14.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.190665, 36.09909, 35.805857, 35.531182 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 36.279999, "trend_reference": 35.216666, "distance_from_trend": 0.030194, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.834229, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.176614, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.667624, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.04193, "excess_performance": -0.078491, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030194, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033814, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.176614, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001695, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046676, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009998, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04193, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.940334, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7300, "relative_activity": 0.699234, "balance": 1.940334, "dry_up": 1.288314, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007294, "annualized_volatility": 0.074602, "from_high_reference": -0.003023, "from_low_reference": 0.184905 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.216666, "fair_value_reference": 30.834229, "structural_low": 33.560001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.008612, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.002672, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.065303, "worst_return": -0.051435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.023607, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.000597, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.120157, "worst_return": -0.074296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.039887, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.003103, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.172267, "worst_return": -0.056567, "sufficient": true }, { 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93.601373, "activity_lines": [ 35.909334, 35.704909, 35.35919, 35.133552 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 36.07, "volume": 31000, "typical_volume": 9690.0, "trend": 34.819898, "fair_value": 30.543853, "relative_strength": -3.077321, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.818434, "energy": 88.149893, "activity_lines": [ 36.001333, 35.797455, 35.448524, 35.221471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.099998, "volume": 24300, "typical_volume": 10620.0, "trend": 34.929241, "fair_value": 30.615478, "relative_strength": -2.709528, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.81135, "energy": 86.956072, "activity_lines": [ 36.063333, 35.883091, 35.537286, 35.304058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.169998, "volume": 12200, "typical_volume": 10770.0, "trend": 35.031333, "fair_value": 30.687678, "relative_strength": -2.642516, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.877068, "energy": 86.28215, "activity_lines": [ 36.122666, 35.965999, 35.630666, 35.384107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.169998, "volume": 10000, "typical_volume": 10795.0, "trend": 35.139, "fair_value": 30.760192, "relative_strength": -2.04865, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.468792, "energy": 81.199354, "activity_lines": [ 36.150665, 36.029272, 35.717047, 35.457569 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.279999, "volume": 7300, "typical_volume": 10440.0, "trend": 35.216666, "fair_value": 30.834229, "relative_strength": -4.667624, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.53333, "energy": 73.865147, "activity_lines": [ 36.190665, 36.09909, 35.805857, 35.531182 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }